For the week ending Friday, December 30th
First, we would like to wish a Happy New Year to all our sponsors, contributors and readers! Thanks for all your tremendous support this year and please accept our wishes for a healthy, happy and prosperous 2012. If it turns out to be anything like 2011, we should be in for quite a ride. While light trading volumes at year end can at times lead to sharp price movements, commodity prices were fairly range-bound in this holiday shortened week.
In New York, NYMEX crude oil closed above $101/bbl on Tuesday but eased back below $100/bbl on Friday morning, while gold prices trended down for much of the week beforerebounding above $1,575/to on Friday. Both oil and gold prices looked set to finish the year well into positive territory, easily outperforming the nonferrous metals, most of which were poised to end the year down 20% or more. COMEX March copper was up around 7 cents on Friday morning to approach $3.44/lb., retracing losses from earlier in the week. On Wall Street, the Dow Industrials were off around 2 tenths of a percentage point in early afternoon trading while the Euro strengthened somewhat to $1.2989 after having previously hit 15-month lows vs the dollar and 10-year lows vs the Japanese Yen this week.
Macro news...
As expected, a pretty quiet week on the economic news front but the little info that came out was largely positive. The Conference Board consumer confidence index jumped to 64.5 in December from 55.2 in November, following a similar bounce in the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index. Initial claims for unemployment edged up to 381,000 for the week ending December 24, but the recent trend for claims to come in under 400,000 is generally seen as positive news for the labor market.
Finally, the Chicago PMI reading for December came in at 62.5 in December, off slightly from the November reading but signaling continued expansion in the region's manufacturing sector. As we indicate in our marketforecast article to be published in the next edition of Scrap magazine (our absolute favorite), the economic data have been pointing in a more positive direction lately but significant risks remain in 2012, including the need for significant improvement in the U.S. labor and housing markets, the need to balance government finances in the long-term without choking off growth in the short-run, and the growing skepticism that politicians will be able to agree on any meaningful solutions, especially in an election year. Not to mention the risks posed in Europe and by a potential slowdown in Chinese growth. Don't miss the Jan-Feb 2012 edition of Scrap to read the full report.
Ferrous...
Commodity markets were pretty quiet as 2011 drew to a close this week. For the week ending December 24, the American Iron and Steel Institute reports that domestic raw steel production of 1.9 million net tons was down 2.3% from the preceding week, but up 14.8% from the corresponding week in 2010, as capacity utilization came in at 76.7%. Earlier in the month, AISI reported a 9.4 percent jump in U.S. steel mill shipments through October to reach 76.4 million tons, likely the result of improving demand from the U.S. automotive, energy and agribusiness sectors. No significant changes were reported in flat rolled steel or ferrous scrap prices this week, with Platts showing a mid-point HRC price of $695/st ex-works Indiana and The Steel Index reporting a steady shredded reference price of $453/lt delivered Midwest as market participants prepare for 2012.
Nonferrous...
With the London Metal Exchange closed on Monday and Tuesday this week (and next Monday as well), market activity and trading volumes were reportedly thinner this week. This morning, Reuters reported the base metals opened firmer in London, including gains in official 3-mo. copper ($7,570/mt), aluminum ($1,992/mt) and zinc ($1,845/mt) asking prices. What's remarkable is the range, and ultimate decline, in nonferrous prices this year. Official LME 3-month copper prices plunged 33 percent from peak to trough this year, dropping as low as $6,812 a mt in October 2011. The corresponding aluminum price with official peaked around $2,774 per metric ton in late April, but had plunged by more than $800 a ton by late December. Official 3-mo nickel prices ranged from as high as $29,075 per mt in February to as low as $16,950 per ton in late November. The list goes on.
Recovered Paper and Fiber...
RISI reported this week that China's imports of recovered paper surged to nearly 2.5 million tonnes in November, up 30% from the just over 1.9 million tonnes imported in October 2011 and 22.5% higher than that 2 million tonnes imported in November 2010. Data from China Customs reportedly show that monthon- month imports of OCC increased 28% to 1.44 million tonnes, ONP imports jumped nearly 50% to over 633,000 tonnes, and Mixed paper shipments advance 14% to nearly 365,000 tonnes. For the year-todate,Chinese recovered paper imports reportedly increased 11.7% to approach 24.6 million tonnes.
Plastics...
Last but not least are U.S. plastic scrap exports. The Census Bureau reported earlier this month that the FAS value of U.S. plastic scrap exports dipped to $96 million in October, down from $101 million in September, although year-to-date exports were up 15% to nearly $885 million. The largest overseas customers so far this year include: China - $451 million, Hong Kong - $213 million, Canada - $80 million, India - $41 million, and Mexico - $14 million. Here's recent trend by volume and polymer:
This Week's Quote: "Now is the accepted time to make your regular annual good resolutions. Next week you can begin paving hell with them as usual." -- Mark Twain
This Week's Story: Ruby was taking an afternoon nap on New Year's Eve before the festivities. After she woke up, she confided to Max, her husband, 'I just dreamed that you gave me a diamond ring for a New Year's present. What do you think it all means?'
'Aha, you'll know tonight,' answered Max smiling broadly.
At midnight, as the New Year was chiming, Max approached Ruby and handed her a small package.
Delighted and excited she opened it quickly.
There in her hand rested a book entitled: 'The meaning of dreams'.
******
HAPPY NEW YEAR!!!




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