Key Points

• Global gold supply declines: Total supply fell ▼ 1% year over year to 1,368.6 tonnes, despite record third-quarter mine production of 1,070.9 tonnes.
• Gold recycling weakens: Recycled supply dropped ▼ 8% to 314.5 tonnes, with China and India reporting particularly sharp declines.
• Mine production expands: Canada ▲ 22%, Indonesia ▲ 21% and Chile ▲ 19%, supporting the prospect of another annual production record.

SCRAPMONSTER EDGE | GOLD SUPPLY ANALYSIS

Record Mining Output Could Not Offset Weaker Recycling

Gold mine production increased by 30.2 tonnes compared with Q3 2025. However, recycled supply declined by 28.2 tonnes, nearly eliminating the additional mine output.

Producer de-hedging reduced supply by a further 16.6 tonnes year over year, resulting in a net decline of 14.6 tonnes in total global supply.

What makes the recycling decline notable is that the average gold price remained 23% higher than a year earlier. Nevertheless, prices were 5% lower than in the previous quarter, and the WGC found recycling activity remained subdued.

Industry takeaway: Higher annual bullion prices are not necessarily producing more recycled gold. For precious-metals recyclers, refiners and buyers, recent price direction, consumer willingness to sell and regional market conditions remain important factors influencing scrap availability.

Gold Mine Production Reaches Record Third-Quarter Level

Global gold mine output climbed 3% year over year to 1,070.9 tonnes, marking the strongest third quarter since the WGC's records began in 2000.

Canada recorded a 22% increase, supported by recently commissioned operations, including Equinox Gold's Valentine mine and B2Gold's Goose project, alongside higher production at existing facilities.

Indonesia's production rose 21%, benefiting from improved output at Batu Hijau, new production from the Pani Gold project and recovery at Grasberg.

Chile reported 19% growth, supported by Salares Norte and newly commissioned projects, while Ghana's output increased 13%.

In contrast, mine production fell in several countries, including Namibia (-29%), Turkey (-16%), Australia (-12%) and the United States (-7%), reflecting mine sequencing, lower ore grades and operational transitions.

Global Gold Recycling Falls 8% to Three-Year Low

Recycled gold supply declined to 314.5 tonnes during Q3 2026, down 8% from 342.7 tonnes in the corresponding quarter of 2025.

The WGC noted that recycling has remained relatively unresponsive to historically elevated gold prices, with consumers in several markets choosing to retain their holdings rather than sell.

Regional performance varied considerably:

• China: Recycling volumes fell 20% year over year.
• India: Recycling declined 12%, partly reflecting increased use of gold as collateral and jewellery exchanges.
• Europe: Recycling increased 12% year over year.
• United States: Recycled gold volumes rose 8%.
• Canada: Recycling increased 10% year over year, although volumes fell 21% from Q2.

In China and India, exchanging old jewellery for new purchases also affected the volume of metal entering the recycling market. Such exchanges do not necessarily create additional net recycled gold supply.

Producer De-Hedging Reduces Gold Supply by 16.8 Tonnes

Gold producers continued reducing their outstanding hedge positions during the quarter.

The WGC estimated 16.8 tonnes of net producer de-hedging, marking the eleventh consecutive quarter of contraction in the aggregate producer hedge book.

De-hedging is treated as a negative component in the WGC's gold supply accounting because producers are reducing outstanding forward sales commitments rather than adding net hedged supply.

The outstanding producer hedge book is estimated to have declined from approximately 109 tonnes at the end of Q2 to around 92 tonnes at the end of Q3.

Gold Mine Production Could Reach New Annual Record

Global mine production during January–September 2026 was 2% higher year over year, supporting the possibility of another annual record if output remains resilient through the fourth quarter.

However, the WGC expects the broader gold supply response to remain modest. Additional mine production may be offset by relatively weak recycling volumes and continued producer de-hedging.

The latest findings underscore the different forces shaping mined and recycled gold supply, even as elevated bullion prices continue to influence the global precious-metals market.