Key Points

• Weekly performance: Gold remained on track for its strongest weekly gain since late August despite Friday's decline.
• U.S. market drivers: Democratic victories in both chambers of Congress reshaped fiscal-policy expectations, while stronger payroll data subsequently supported the dollar and bond yields.
• Underlying demand: Central banks purchased an estimated 321 tonnes of gold in Q3 2026, according to the World Gold Council.

SCRAPMONSTER EDGE | PRECIOUS METALS ANALYSIS

Gold's Weekly Recovery Faces a New Test From U.S. Employment Data

Gold's strong weekly recovery occurred alongside changing expectations for U.S. fiscal policy, interest rates and Treasury yields following the midterm elections.

Friday's stronger-than-expected employment report complicated that outlook. Higher Treasury yields and a stronger dollar can reduce gold's relative attractiveness, even when broader political and financial uncertainty supports demand for safe-haven assets.

The World Gold Council's estimate of 321 tonnes in third-quarter central-bank buying provides an additional indication of institutional demand, although that longer-term demand does not prevent short-term price corrections.

Market takeaway: Precious metals buyers, refiners and recyclers should distinguish the broader weekly rally from intraday price movements. Changes in the dollar, interest-rate expectations and market liquidity can affect bullion-linked scrap valuations even when underlying institutional demand remains strong.

Gold and Precious Metals: Early Friday Price Snapshot

At 8:22 p.m. ET on November 5 (1:22 a.m. GMT on November 6), spot gold was down 0.1% at $4,083.31 per troy ounce, while U.S. gold futures declined 0.5% to $4,092.67, according to the original market report.

Silver edged up 0.1% to $51.8615 per ounce, while platinum slipped 0.2% to $1,517.17.

Spot palladium declined 0.9% to $1,025.28 per ounce, while palladium futures lost 0.8% to $1,025.25. The U.S. Dollar Index increased 0.1% to 101.62.

Market data note: These are time-specific overnight observations from the original report, not current quotations or final daily settlements.

U.S. Election Results Reshape Treasury and Dollar Expectations

The U.S. midterm elections resulted in Democratic control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate, changing expectations for the government's fiscal and legislative agenda.

Market participants assessed whether a divided federal government could constrain future fiscal expansion and government borrowing.

Lower Treasury yields can support gold by reducing the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset. A weaker dollar can also make bullion less expensive for buyers using other currencies.

Gold's recovery occurred alongside weakness in technology shares, as investors reassessed regulatory and spending expectations following the election.

However, equity-market declines can also weigh on gold when investors sell liquid assets to cover losses or meet margin requirements.

Stronger U.S. Payrolls Put Renewed Pressure on Gold

The U.S. Labor Department reported on Friday morning that nonfarm payroll employment increased by 165,000 in October 2026, while the unemployment rate remained at 4.1%.

The stronger employment reading supported the dollar and Treasury yields, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve could maintain restrictive monetary policy for longer.

In trading after the employment release, Reuters reported spot gold down approximately 1% at $4,047.10 per ounce, although the metal remained roughly 4.5% higher for the week at the time of that report.

These figures represent a later market observation than the overnight prices cited above.

Central Banks Add 321 Tonnes of Gold in Third Quarter

Institutional demand remained an important source of longer-term support for the gold market.

According to the World Gold Council, central banks and other official institutions purchased an estimated 321 tonnes of gold during Q3 2026, an increase of 42% from a year earlier.

The figure was the highest quarterly total since the fourth quarter of 2024. Estimated net purchases reached 675 tonnes during January–September, up 6% year over year.

The WGC attributed the continued accumulation partly to reserve diversification and risk-management considerations.

Importantly, the 321-tonne estimate includes unreported official-sector activity and should not be confused with the smaller total of publicly disclosed central-bank purchases.

Gold Market Outlook

Gold's near-term direction will remain sensitive to changes in Treasury yields, the U.S. dollar, Federal Reserve policy expectations and broader financial-market sentiment.

Political developments and continued central-bank accumulation may support investment interest, but stronger economic data and rising yields can limit short-term gains.

For the precious metals industry, the contrast between gold's strong weekly recovery and Friday's decline reinforces the importance of monitoring the timing of bullion quotations when assessing scrap and refining values.