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U.S. Raw Steel Output Up 4.1% YoY Despite Second Weekly Dip
U.S. raw steel production remained firmly above year-ago levels in the week ended October 10, reaching 1.796 million net tons, although output edged lower for a second consecutive week after reaching 1.845 million tons in late September.
By Paul Ploumis
Published October 13, 2026
Key Points
- Weekly production: 1.796 million net tons.
- Year over year: ↑4.1% from 1.722 million tons.
- Week over week: ↓0.3% from 1.801 million tons.
- Capability utilization: 77.8%, versus 75.1% a year earlier.
- 2026 YTD production: 73.763 million tons, ↑5.3%.
- YTD utilization: 79.0%, up from 77.0% in the comparable 2025 period.
- Largest region: Southern district at 768,000 net tons.
SEATTLE (Scrap Monster): U.S. raw steel production continued to run above year-earlier levels in early October, even as mills eased output slightly from the previous week.
Domestic steelmakers produced an estimated 1.796 million net tons during the week ending October 10, 2026, according to the American Iron and Steel Institute.
That was ↑4.1% above the 1.722 million net tons produced during the corresponding week in 2025.
Production nevertheless slipped ↓0.3% from 1.801 million tons in the week ending October 3.
ScrapMonster Exclusive: The 5,000-Ton National Dip Hid a 34,000-Ton Southern Pullback
The 0.3% national decline looks almost insignificant, but the regional numbers tell a more interesting story.
The Southern district reduced production from 802,000 tons to 768,000 tons between the October 3 and October 10 reporting weeks — a decline of 34,000 tons.
Most of that loss was offset elsewhere. Great Lakes output increased by 12,000 tons, the Northeast gained 14,000 tons and the Midwest added 3,000 tons. Western production remained unchanged.
| District | Oct. 3 | Oct. 10 | Weekly Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Southern | 802,000 | 768,000 | ↓34,000 |
| Great Lakes | 522,000 | 534,000 | ↑12,000 |
| Midwest | 282,000 | 285,000 | ↑3,000 |
| Northeast | 126,000 | 140,000 | ↑14,000 |
| Western | 69,000 | 69,000 | → Flat |
National production therefore fell by only 5,000 tons because a 34,000-ton Southern decline was offset by 29,000 tons of combined gains elsewhere.
The Southern district still remained by far the largest producing region, supplying roughly 42.8% of total U.S. raw steel output during the week. Southern and Great Lakes mills together accounted for approximately 72.5% of national production.
The broader signal remains positive despite the weekly easing. Current production is 74,000 tons above the comparable 2025 week, while year-to-date output is running 3.68 million tons ahead of last year.
Weekly Steel Production Slips 0.3%
U.S. mills produced 1.796 million net tons during the latest reporting week, down from 1.801 million tons one week earlier.
| U.S. Raw Steel Measure | Latest | Comparison |
|---|---|---|
| Weekly Production | 1.796M NT | ↑4.1% YoY |
| Weekly Change | ↓5,000 NT | ↓0.3% |
| Capability Utilization | 77.8% | 75.1% one year ago |
| 2026 YTD Production | 73.763M NT | ↑5.3% YoY |
| 2026 YTD Utilization | 79.0% | 77.0% in 2025 |
Output Has Eased for Two Consecutive Weeks
The October 10 reading marks the second weekly production decline following the stronger pace recorded in late September.
U.S. mills produced 1.845 million net tons during the week ending September 26 at an 80.5% capability utilization rate.
Production then fell to 1.801 million tons in the week ending October 3 before edging down again to 1.796 million tons in the latest week.
| Week Ended | Production | Capability Utilization |
|---|---|---|
| September 26 | 1.845M NT | 80.5% |
| October 3 | 1.801M NT | 78.3% |
| October 10 | 1.796M NT | 77.8% |
Production has therefore declined by 49,000 net tons, or roughly 2.7%, from the September 26 level.
Capability utilization has fallen 2.7 percentage points over the same two-week period.
The decline is worth monitoring, but two weaker weekly readings are not enough to establish a broader production downturn, particularly while year-over-year and year-to-date comparisons remain positive.
Production Remains 4.1% Above Last Year
The annual comparison continues to show a stronger domestic steelmaking environment.
During the corresponding week of 2025, U.S. mills produced 1.722 million net tons at 75.1% capability utilization.
The latest production level is therefore approximately 74,000 net tons higher than a year earlier.
Capability utilization is also 2.7 percentage points above the year-earlier reading.
Year-to-Date Steel Output Is Up 5.3%
Adjusted U.S. raw steel production totaled 73.763 million net tons through October 10.
That compares with 70.083 million net tons during the corresponding 2025 period.
The increase amounts to approximately 3.68 million net tons, or ↑5.3%.
Year-to-date capability utilization also improved to 79.0% from 77.0% during the comparable period last year.
Southern District Produces Nearly 43% of U.S. Steel
The Southern district remained the largest U.S. steel-producing region despite its weekly decline.
| District | Production | Share of U.S. Total |
|---|---|---|
| Southern | 768,000 NT | 42.8% |
| Great Lakes | 534,000 NT | 29.7% |
| Midwest | 285,000 NT | 15.9% |
| Northeast | 140,000 NT | 7.8% |
| Western | 69,000 NT | 3.8% |
The Southern and Great Lakes districts together accounted for approximately 1.302 million tons, or about 72.5% of total national raw steel production.
Raw Steel Production and Mill Shipments Tell a Similar Annual Story
The stronger year-to-date production data are consistent with the latest annual trend in mill shipments.
AISI separately reported that domestic mills shipped 63.97 million net tons during January through August 2026, up ↑5.4% from the comparable period in 2025.
Raw steel production is currently running ↑5.3% ahead on a year-to-date basis.
The reporting periods are different and production should not be compared directly with shipments on a one-for-one basis, but both indicators point to a U.S. steel industry operating at a stronger annual pace than in 2025.
Current Utilization Is Below the 2026 Average
The latest weekly capability utilization rate of 77.8% remains above the 75.1% year-earlier reading.
However, it is below the 79.0% year-to-date average.
That reinforces the distinction between the current weekly trend and the broader 2026 picture: mills have eased from late-September operating levels, but cumulative production remains solidly ahead of last year.
What to Watch Next
Third consecutive decline: Another weekly drop would make the recent September-to-October easing more notable after production fell from 1.845 million to 1.796 million tons over two weeks.
Capability utilization: The latest 77.8% rate is below the 79.0% year-to-date average. A move back toward 80% would suggest mills are returning to the stronger operating pace seen in late September.
Southern production: The South remains the largest producing district, but its 34,000-ton weekly decline accounted for more than the entire net national decrease.
Great Lakes: Output rose 12,000 tons during the latest week, partially offsetting the Southern decline.
Domestic demand: Mill shipments, manufacturing activity, energy infrastructure, data-centre construction and other steel-intensive investment will remain important indicators of whether the stronger annual production pace continues.
Scrap demand: Sustained raw steel production generally supports ferrous feedstock consumption, although individual mill buying programs and scrap prices can differ by region and furnace route.
ScrapMonster Market Read: The latest AISI data contain two different signals. Weekly output has now eased for two consecutive periods and utilization has slipped below the 2026 average, so the late-September production pace has clearly cooled. But this is not yet a weak annual steel picture. Production remains 4.1% above the same week last year, year-to-date tonnage is 5.3% higher and cumulative utilization is two percentage points stronger. The regional detail is equally important: nearly the entire national decline came from the Southern district while several other regions increased production. For scrap suppliers, that makes regional mill activity more informative than the small 0.3% national decline by itself.
Source: American Iron and Steel Institute.
