Goldman Sachs Boosts 2026 Copper Forecast Citing Tariff-Driven Market Risks
Copper | 2025-12-16 10:08:54
Benchmark three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange (LME) was up 1.4% at $11,670 per metric ton by late Monday.
By Paul Ploumis
SEATTLE (Scrap Monster): Goldman Sachs on Monday raised its 2026 copper price forecast to $11,400 per metric ton, up from $10,650, citing reduced odds of a refined copper tariff being implemented in the first half of 2026 as affordability concerns take precedence.
Market Performance and Recent Volatility
Benchmark three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange (LME) was up 1.4% at $11,670 per metric ton by late Monday. Copper had touched a record high of $11,952 on Friday, driven by tight supply fears, before retreating amid renewed concerns that the artificial intelligence sector may be in a bubble.
Tariff Expectations and Supply Dynamics
Goldman Sachs estimates a 55% probability that the Trump administration could announce a 15% tariff on copper imports in H1 2026, with implementation in 2027 and a potential increase to 30% by 2028.
Key implications highlighted by the bank include:
· U.S. copper prices likely trading at a premium to LME
· Continued stockpiling, tightening ex-U.S. supply
· The U.S. becoming a key driver of global copper pricing
Outlook Beyond 2026
Goldman Sachs maintained its 2027 price forecast at $10,750, expecting LME prices to retreat once tariffs are implemented and markets rebalance. The bank also raised its 2026 global surplus forecast to 300,000 tons from 160,000 tons.
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Frequently Asked Questions
- What is Goldman Sachs’ revised copper price forecast for 2026?
Goldman Sachs raised its 2026 copper forecast to $11,400 per metric ton from $10,650.
- What recent market movements have been observed for copper?
LME three-month copper reached a record high of $11,952/ton before retreating to $11,670/ton amid supply concerns and AI sector volatility.
- How likely is a U.S. copper tariff in early 2026?
Goldman Sachs estimates a 55% probability of a 15% U.S. copper import tariff in H1 2026, potentially increasing to 30% by 2028.
