Cochilco Raises Copper Price Forecast for 2026 Amid Global Supply Concerns
Copper | 2025-11-20 11:52:53
Cochilco anticipates a deficit of 165,000 tons in the global copper market by 2026.
By Paul Ploumis
SEATTLE (Scrap Monster): The Chilean Copper Commission (Cochilco) has updated its Copper Market Trends Report, revising price, demand, and supply forecasts for 2025 and 2026.
According to Aurora Williams, Acting Executive Vice President of Cochilco, the agency now expects the average copper price for 2026 to reach US$4.55 per pound, up from the previous projection of US$4.30 per pound. For the current year, 2025, the average price is forecast at US$4.45 per pound, slightly higher than earlier estimates.
The upward revision is attributed to a combination of factors, including tighter global copper supply, anticipated interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve, a weakening U.S. dollar, and ongoing geopolitical and trade uncertainties worldwide.
Cochilco predicts a global copper market deficit of 165,000 tons by 2026, as supply growth is expected to lag behind consumption. The agency forecasts supply growth of 1.4% compared to a 2.1% increase in demand, resulting in a deficit. In contrast, the global copper market is expected to remain balanced in 2025. The report also notes that scrap copper availability will continue to remain limited.
Global copper mine production is projected to reach 22.9 million tons in 2025 and increase further by 3.9% to 23.8 million tons in 2026, highlighting steady growth amid tightening market conditions.
POLL
How is copper scrap availability expected to impact the market?
Frequently Asked Questions
- What is the projected average copper price for 2025?
The average price for 2025 is forecast at US$4.45 per pound, slightly higher than earlier estimates.
- Why did Cochilco raise the copper price forecast?
The revision is due to lower global supply, expected U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts, a weakening dollar, and ongoing geopolitical and trade uncertainties.
- How is copper scrap availability expected to change?
Scrap copper availability is expected to remain limited, contributing to the market deficit.
