US Copper Imports and Inventories Remain High in 2026

SEATTLE (Scrap Monster):  The significant premium for physical copper delivery in the United States has dissipated, but trade dynamics influenced by tariff policies persist. Imports of refined metal had seemed to decline after a White House decision on potential tariffs was deferred in July, which caused a price differential between US and international benchmarks to collapse. However, inbound shipments surged again near the end of the year, reaching almost 200,000 metric tons in December and further increasing national stockpiles.

Over the full course of 2025, the United States imported 1.4 million tons of refined copper, according to the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS). This represented an annual increase of 730,000 tons, highlighting a substantial accumulation of metal within the country. Inventories in CME-registered warehouses grew by 452,000 tons during that year, largely aligning with total deliveries made after the President of the United States announced a national security review of copper import reliance in February. Since the beginning of 2026, exchange stocks have risen an additional 93,000 tons, though the pace of accumulation is now beginning to slow.

The ongoing metal flow has not ceased but has shifted destination. Shipments are now being directed to LME warehouses located in Baltimore and New Orleans. Stocks in these two locations, which were nonexistent at the start of January, have grown to 36,450 tons and 10,825 tons respectively, with a further 30,200 tons held in off-warrant storage linked to the LME. This shift aligns with a reversal in the spot price differential, which now favors the LME price over the CME price.

Forward pricing for CME copper continues to trade at a notable premium to LME futures, indicating ongoing market uncertainty about the future possibility of tariffs. The administration has signaled a potential decision point around mid-year, with the option to phase in tariffs on refined metal starting at the beginning of 2027. The existing imposition of tariffs on certain copper products appears to be producing an intended effect, with imports of such semi-manufactured goods falling sharply since July.

This decline may encourage officials to consider extending measures to refined metal. However, the core goal of reducing import dependency may already be partially achieved, as the threat of tariffs has contributed to the build-up of a strategic inventory without direct cost to taxpayers. Attention may now turn to exports of copper scrap, which totaled over one million tons in 2025, marking an annual rise of nearly 10%. The largest recipient of this material is China.

Although significant investment has occurred in domestic recycling capacity, the accelerating outflow of scrap presents a challenge. A previous administration statement regarding the retention of a portion of high-quality scrap for domestic use has not been further clarified. With the European Union also considering restrictions on scrap exports, this segment of the supply chain may face regulatory action. The market experience of the past year demonstrates the difficulty of pricing in US tariff risk.

Courtesy: www.indexbox.io