Codelco Raises El Teniente Loss Forecast, Projects Production Surge in 2025
Copper | 2025-10-13 11:55:58
It must be recalled that the output loss from El Teniente coupled with disruptions at Grasberg mine had tightened supplies, thus pushing copper prices closer to the record prices reached last year.
By Paul Ploumis
SEATTLE (Scrap Monster): Codelco, Chile’s state-owned copper mining giant and the world’s largest producer of refined copper, has raised its loss estimates from the accident at its flagship El Teniente mine. Despite the setback, the company remains confident that its overall copper output in 2025 will slightly exceed last year’s production levels.
In an interview, Codelco Chairman Maximo Pachelco revealed that copper losses from the El Teniente accident are now projected to be 45% higher than earlier estimates. The revised assessment indicates that the incident will likely reduce Codelco’s copper output by around 48,000 metric tons this year. The decline is also expected to impact the company’s annual EBITDA by approximately $500 million.
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It should be noted that the production disruptions at El Teniente—one of Codelco’s most productive underground mines—combined with output issues at Indonesia’s Grasberg mine, have contributed to a tighter global copper supply, pushing prices closer to the record highs seen last year.
However, Codelco has reported positive signs in its broader operations. Pachelco noted that the company’s cumulative production during the first nine months of 2025 was 2% higher year-on-year, reaching 938,000 tons, compared with the same period in 2024.
Looking ahead, Codelco expects its 2025 copper production to remain slightly above 2024 levels, reaffirming its full-year production guidance of 1.34 million to 1.37 million tons. Despite challenges, the company continues to focus on operational stability and investment in modernization projects across its major mines, including Chuquicamata, Andina, and Radomiro Tomic.
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Frequently Asked Questions
- How will the El Teniente accident affect Codelco’s financial performance?
- The production shortfall is expected to reduce annual EBITDA by around $500 million, reflecting the mine’s significance to Codelco’s overall copper output.
- What impact has the disruption had on global copper markets?
- Combined with production challenges at Indonesia’s Grasberg mine, the El Teniente disruption has tightened global copper supply, pushing prices close to the record highs seen last year.
- What are Codelco’s priorities moving forward?
- The company remains focused on operational stability, recovery at El Teniente, and continued modernization projects across major mines such as Chuquicamata, Andina, and Radomiro Tomic to sustain long-term growth.
