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Lead October 31, 2017 02:30:54 PM

World Refined Lead Metal Demand to Touch 11.82 Mt in 2018

Paul Ploumis
ScrapMonster Author
According to ILZSG, the global demand for refined lead metal is expected to grow by 5% to 11.15 million tonnes in 2017.

World Refined Lead Metal Demand to Touch 11.82 Mt in 2018

SEATTLE (Scrap Monster): The International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG), in its recent session held in Lisbon, Portugal on 26-27, October has reviewed the current market trends and global supply-demand situation for Lead metal. Further, the organization analyzed the various issues and also provided a detailed forecast on its outlook of lead in 2018.

According to ILZSG, the global demand for refined lead metal is expected to grow by 5% to 11.15 million tonnes in 2017. The growth in demand will be mainly on account of strong growth in Chinese apparent usage. The Chinese apparent usage is forecast to post robust 11.3% growth, driven by rise in use of e-trikes. ILZSG forecasts 2% rise in usage by the European region during the current year. The US is likely to report marginal 1.1% jump in refined lead metal demand in 2017.

Meantime, the lead mine supply is expected to witness 5.6% year-on-year growth in 2017 to 5.06 million tonnes. The mine supply had totaled only 4.79 million tonnes during the entire year 2016. China, India, Kazakhstan and Canada will be primary contributors of the increased mine supply. The trade group forecasts refined lead metal demand to grow by 3.7% to total 11.58 million tonnes. Also, for the first time in five years, China’s imports of refined lead metal are likely to exceed exports in 2017. The imports are forecast to beat exports by nearly 95,000 tonnes.

The global demand for refined lead metal will grow further by 0.9% to 11.82 million tonnes in 2018. The strong Chinese demand will persist, ILZSG noted. The European usage will remain flat during the year. The group forecasts 1.8% rise in US demand. The world lead mine supply growth will reduce to 1.1% in 2018 to total 5.11 million tonnes. The start-up of Cuba’s Minera del Caribe’s Castellanos mine, output from recently commissioned Olympias mine in Greece and increased mine output from Mexico will contribute significantly to the forecast growth. Also, world refined lead metal production is expected to rise by 1.6% to 11.77 million tonnes in 2018, mainly driven by increased Chinese output.

Based on information provided by member countries, ILZSG forecasts a supply deficit for global lead market in 2017. The global demand for refined lead metal is likely to exceed supply by 125 kt. It must be noted that the group had predicted balanced market conditions during its earlier review. ILZSG forecasts market deficit of 45 kt in 2018.

The ILZSG session also elected Mr. Li Yusheng as the Study Group Chairman and Mr. Henrique Santos as the Chairman of the Standing Committee.

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