Iran Conflict Pushes LME Aluminum Prices Higher

SEATTLE (Scrap Monster): The escalating conflict involving Iran has disrupted aluminum production across the Middle East, forcing major smelters to declare force majeure and driving prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) to a four-year high of $3,418 per tonne.

Analysts at Citigroup warned that prices could surge to $4,000 per tonne if supply disruptions persist. Several key producers, including Aluminium Bahrain and Norsk Hydro, have halted operations after gas supply to the Qatalum smelter was suspended by QatarEnergy. The facility is jointly operated with Qatar Aluminum Manufacturing Company.

The ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz—a passage responsible for roughly 20% of global oil shipments—has further disrupted logistics for Gulf smelters, which rely heavily on maritime transport for raw materials and metal exports.

The Middle East hosts major aluminum production hubs in Bahrain, Qatar and the UAE, accounting for nearly 10% of global refined aluminum output and about 23% of supply outside China.

The supply shock comes as global inventories remain historically low. According to the International Aluminium Institute, China’s production growth has slowed while Western markets face tighter supply due to lower exports and ongoing trade restrictions on Russian metal.

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