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U.S. Raw Steel Output Falls 6.1% as Mill Utilization Drops Below 78%
U.S. steelmakers produced 1.785 million net tons of raw steel in the week ended September 19, down 6.1% from the previous week but still 0.6% above the comparable 2025 period, according to the American Iron and Steel Institute. Capability utilization fell to 77.9% from 82.3% a week earlier.
Published September 22, 2026
Reporting week ended September 19, 2026
Weekly Steel Production Snapshot
| Measure | Sept. 19, 2026 | Previous Week | Year-Ago Week |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw steel output | 1.785 million NT | 1.900 million NT | 1.775 million NT |
| Capability utilization | 77.9% | 82.3% | 78.4% |
MONTREAL (Scrap Monster): U.S. raw steel production pulled back sharply during the week ended September 19, reversing the previous week’s increase as mill utilization fell below 78%.
Domestic mills produced 1.785 million net tons of raw steel, down ↓6.1% from 1.900 million net tons in the week ended September 12.
Despite the week-over-week decline, output remained ↑0.6% above the 1.775 million net tons produced during the comparable week of 2025.
Mill Utilization Falls to 77.9%
Capability utilization dropped to 77.9% from 82.3% in the previous week.
The latest utilization rate was also slightly below the 78.4% recorded during the same week last year.
The decline marks a sharp reversal from the prior week, when U.S. mills operated at their strongest utilization rate of the recent September reporting period.
Regional Output Shows Broad Weekly Pullback
The Southern district remained the largest U.S. steel-producing region at 818,000 net tons, but output fell by 58,000 tons from the previous week.
The Great Lakes produced 528,000 net tons, down 10,000 tons week over week. Midwest production declined by 21,000 tons to 275,000 net tons.
The Western district recorded the sharpest proportional decline, falling to 36,000 net tons from 64,000 tons. The Northeast was the only district to increase, edging up to 128,000 net tons from 126,000 tons.
| District | Sept. 19 Output | Sept. 12 Output | Weekly Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Southern | 818,000 NT | 876,000 NT | ↓ 58,000 NT |
| Great Lakes | 528,000 NT | 538,000 NT | ↓ 10,000 NT |
| Midwest | 275,000 NT | 296,000 NT | ↓ 21,000 NT |
| Northeast | 128,000 NT | 126,000 NT | ↑ 2,000 NT |
| Western | 36,000 NT | 64,000 NT | ↓ 28,000 NT |
The Southern district accounted for roughly half of the 115,000-ton national week-over-week decline, making it the largest absolute contributor to the pullback.
Year-to-Date AISI Figure Requires Caution
AISI’s current weekly industry-data page lists adjusted year-to-date 2026 production through September 19 at 66.537 million net tons, up 5.5% from 63.093 million net tons during the comparable 2025 period.
However, those totals are identical to the figures AISI reported one week earlier for the period through September 12. They therefore do not reconcile with the newly reported September 19 weekly production.
Using AISI’s previously published cumulative totals and adding the latest weekly output implies approximately 68.322 million net tons of 2026 production through September 19, compared with approximately 64.868 million net tons for the corresponding 2025 period. That arithmetic would indicate year-to-date growth of roughly 5.3%.
Because AISI’s current page has not yet reconciled the cumulative figures, ScrapMonster is treating the 68.322-million-ton figure as a calculated estimate rather than an official AISI year-to-date total.
Data Integrity Note
AISI’s posted September 19 weekly output and regional totals are internally consistent. The apparent issue is limited to the cumulative year-to-date line, which repeats the prior week’s total.
Until AISI updates or confirms that figure, the weekly production, utilization and regional data should be treated as official, while the reconciled YTD total should be clearly labelled as calculated.
What the Weekly Drop Means for Steel and Scrap Markets
The latest data show that U.S. mill activity cooled materially from the unusually strong September 12 reading.
A 6.1% weekly decline is significant, but one week alone does not establish a broader production trend. Output was still slightly above the comparable 2025 week, and the broader 2026 production run remains ahead of last year based on the cumulative weekly data available.
For scrap-market participants, lower mill utilization can matter because electric-arc-furnace operating rates influence near-term metallics consumption. The AISI data do not provide scrap-purchase volumes or grade-level demand, so the weekly production decline should be viewed as a mill-activity signal rather than a direct forecast for ferrous scrap pricing.
Market Read
The main takeaway from the September 19 data is the contrast between short-term and broader-year performance.
Weekly production fell sharply from 1.900 million to 1.785 million net tons, and capability utilization dropped 4.4 percentage points to 77.9%. Most producing districts contributed to the decline, with the Southern district accounting for the largest absolute reduction.
At the same time, output remained marginally above the year-earlier week, and the accumulated 2026 production data still indicate a stronger year than 2025.
For mills, service centers and scrap suppliers, the next several AISI readings will be more informative than this single weekly drop. A rebound would suggest the September 19 decline was temporary; repeated sub-78% utilization readings would point to a more sustained moderation in mill operating rates.
What to Watch Next
- Weekly mill utilization: whether the operating rate moves back above 80%.
- Southern district output: whether the region recovers from the 58,000-ton weekly decline.
- Great Lakes and Midwest production: whether recent output levels stabilize.
- Ferrous scrap demand: whether lower mill operating rates translate into any visible change in buying activity.
- AISI cumulative data: whether the Institute revises or confirms the September 19 year-to-date total.
