Global Softwood Markets Set for Tighter Supply Through 2035

Global softwood roundwood supply is projected to increase only about 0.5% annually through 2035, while demand from construction, packaging and biomass continues to expand. The U.S. South is expected to provide the strongest additional supply, while Canada, Europe and Russia face varying constraints.

Summary

Softwood Supply Growth to Remain Limited
Global softwood roundwood availability is expected to increase by only around 0.5% per year through 2035. Growing demand from construction, packaging and biomass could put further pressure on available resources.
U.S. South Emerges as Key Supply Growth Region
The U.S. South is expected to provide the largest increase in softwood supply. Canada could post a modest recovery, but its harvest is unlikely to return to previous levels, while Europe faces tighter sustainability constraints.
Regional Challenges Could Restrict Future Output
Russia has substantial unused forest resources, but geopolitical risks, infrastructure limitations and market-access restrictions may hinder development. Latin America and Asia-Pacific are expected to expand production, although climate-related disruptions remain a major risk.

Global Softwood Supply Growth Seen at Just 0.5% Through 2035

Global softwood roundwood supply is projected to expand by only about 0.5% annually through 2035, leaving the market increasingly tight as demand continues to grow across construction, packaging and biomass applications.

Published September 14, 2026

Key Points

Global softwood roundwood availability is projected to grow by only about 0.5% annually through 2035.
Demand from construction, packaging and biomass is expected to grow faster than available supply.
North American softwood roundwood output is nearly 20% below 2000 levels, while Europe/Russia and other regions have each increased by roughly 18%.
The U.S. South is expected to remain the largest source of additional supply.
Canada may recover modestly, while Europe and Russia face significant structural constraints.

MONTREAL (Scrap Monster): Global softwood markets are moving toward a tighter supply environment, with roundwood availability projected to increase by only about 0.5% annually through 2035, according to the Global Softwood Roundwood Supply Outlook by Håkan Ekström and Glen O’Kelly.

Demand for softwood timber is expected to continue expanding across construction, packaging and biomass applications, outpacing the relatively modest increase in available roundwood.

Global Supply Growth Remains Limited

Global softwood roundwood production in 2025 was close to its 25-year average after declining from the record level reached in 2021.

The geographic balance of supply has also shifted substantially over the past quarter-century. North American output has fallen by nearly 20% since 2000, while Europe/Russia and other regions have each recorded gains of roughly 18%.

U.S. South Expected to Lead Additional Supply

The U.S. South is expected to remain the largest contributor of additional softwood roundwood supply.

Canada may record a modest recovery after several years of declining harvests, although output is not expected to return to earlier levels.

Europe faces tighter constraints because harvesting in several areas is already close to sustainable levels, limiting the scope for significant additional supply.

Russia and Other Regions Face Different Constraints

Russia has substantial underused forest resources, but geopolitical uncertainty, infrastructure gaps and restricted market access are expected to limit development.

Latin America and the Asia-Pacific region are expected to record production gains, although climatic events remain a risk to future supply.

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POLL

What will be the biggest challenge for the global softwood market through 2035?

Insufficient supply growth

Sustainability constraints

Climate and geopolitical risks

Frequently Asked Questions

How fast is global softwood roundwood supply expected to grow through 2035?

Global roundwood availability is projected to increase by only about 0.5% annually. This relatively slow growth could make it difficult for supply to keep pace with expanding demand.

What is driving demand for softwood timber?

Construction remains an important source of demand, while packaging and biomass applications are also contributing to consumption growth. Continued activity in these sectors is expected to increase pressure on timber resources.

Which region is expected to contribute the most new softwood supply?

The U.S. South is expected to be the leading source of additional supply. Favorable forest conditions and available resources give the region greater potential for production growth than many other major producing areas.