By BMO Sees Canadian Mining Development Spending Rising More Than 11%
Canadian mining investment is positioned for stronger growth as demand for critical minerals, mine infrastructure and downstream processing attracts new capital, with BMO forecasting development spending to increase by more than 11% annually over the next two years.
Published September 16, 2026
Key Points
- BMO expects Canadian mining development capital expenditures to grow by more than 11% annually over the next two years.
- Mining companies covered by BMO could spend about C$350 billion in Canada over five years on operating costs, sustaining capital and growth projects.
- Canada’s 10-year mining project pipeline totals roughly C$120 billion, according to figures cited by BMO.
- Critical minerals, infrastructure and downstream processing are expected to be major areas for future investment.
- The Canada Investment Summit is targeting C$1 trillion in total investment over five years, with critical minerals among the priority sectors.
MONTREAL (Scrap Monster): Canada’s mining industry could see a significant acceleration in capital investment as demand for critical minerals increases and governments and institutional investors look to strengthen domestic supply chains, according to BMO Global Metals & Mining.
BMO expects Canadian mining development capital expenditures to grow by more than 11% annually over the next two years.
Mining companies covered by the bank could collectively spend approximately C$350 billion on operating costs, sustaining capital and growth projects in Canada over the next five years.
Canada Mining Project Pipeline Near C$120 Billion
BMO Managing Director Matthew Murphy said companies had approximately C$120 billion of projects listed in Natural Resources Canada’s 10-year Major Projects Inventory as of 2025.
That represents roughly C$50 billion more than the comparable 2018 outlook, although the current pipeline remains below the previous investment cycle’s peak of approximately C$220 billion in real 2026 dollars.
Natural Resources Canada separately estimated mining-related major-project investment at C$117.1 billion across 138 projects in its 2024 inventory, highlighting the scale of the development pipeline already under consideration.
Critical Minerals Strengthen Canada’s Investment Case
Canada enters the investment cycle with an established position across several globally important commodities.
The country is the world’s largest producer of potash, second-largest producer of uranium and fourth-largest producer of gold and primary aluminum.
That resource base, combined with rising demand for materials used in energy, defence, advanced manufacturing and technology, is helping increase investor attention on Canadian mining and processing projects.
BMO Sees Opportunity Beyond Mine Development
BMO’s outlook extends beyond upstream mine construction.
The bank has highlighted the need for additional capital in infrastructure and downstream processing, including copper smelting and refining, by-product recovery, battery precursor materials, rare-earth separation, magnets, graphite processing and recycling.
Expanding those capabilities could allow Canada to capture more value domestically rather than relying primarily on mineral extraction and exports.
Pension Capital Could Support Mining Infrastructure
BMO also identified Canadian pension funds and other institutional investors as potential sources of domestic capital for the sector.
Greater infrastructure investment could help finance roads, power, processing facilities and other assets required to bring new mineral projects into production while allowing mining companies to direct more of their own capital toward mine development.
Investment Summit Adds Fresh Capital Momentum
The outlook comes as Canada intensifies efforts to attract new investment into strategic industries.
The federal government has set a goal of catalyzing C$1 trillion in total investment over five years, with critical minerals, energy, infrastructure and technology among its priority areas.
Following the Canada Investment Summit held September 14–15 in Toronto, the federal government said investors, banks and institutions had announced nearly C$500 billion in new investment and financing commitments across the Canadian economy.
BMO separately committed to invest and mobilize C$70 billion over 10 years across strategic Canadian sectors, including mining and critical minerals.
Project Execution Will Determine How Much Capital Converts Into Production
The investment pipeline points to stronger spending potential, but planned capital does not automatically translate into completed mines or processing facilities.
Project financing, infrastructure availability, permitting, commodity economics and construction execution will determine how quickly planned investment converts into operating capacity.
BMO’s forecast nevertheless suggests that Canadian mining is moving into a stronger capital-spending phase, with critical minerals and domestic supply-chain development likely to remain central to the investment case.
