Key Points

• Total exports: Russia shipped 1.8 million tonnes during January–October, up 5% year over year.
• Non-EAEU demand: Exports rose 30% to nearly 1.5 million tonnes, with Türkiye accounting for at least 70%.
• Regional divergence: Shipments to Belarus and Kazakhstan fell 45% to approximately 310,000 tonnes.

SCRAPMONSTER EDGE | GLOBAL FERROUS SCRAP TRADE

Export Growth Reflects a Shift Toward Markets Outside the EAEU

Russia's export growth has been concentrated outside the EAEU, particularly in Türkiye, while trade with Belarus and Kazakhstan has contracted sharply.

Ruslom forecasts 1.83 million tonnes of non-EAEU exports for 2026, compared with the applicable 2.2-million-tonne tariff quota. That would leave approximately 370,000 tonnes of headroom against the aggregate quota, although individual exporter allocations may differ.

Industry takeaway: Turkish mill purchasing, shipping availability and payment restrictions remain important indicators for Russian exporters. Stronger overseas demand may support shipments, but logistical and financial constraints could limit further growth.

Türkiye Accounts for More Than 70% of Non-EAEU Exports

Türkiye remained Russia's largest scrap export destination outside the EAEU, accounting for at least 70% of shipments to those markets. Southeast Asian countries and South Korea were also important destinations.

Russia's Leningrad Oblast accounted for approximately 56% of non-EAEU exports.

Together with Primorsky Krai, Arkhangelsk Oblast and Murmansk, these four regions represented nearly 85% of shipments outside the EAEU.

The concentration highlights the importance of established export corridors and port infrastructure in Russia's scrap trade.

Turkish Scrap Prices Support Export Interest

International scrap prices have helped support Russian export activity. VietnamPlus cited Turkish market prices near US$401 per tonne, although that reference should not be treated as a confirmed realized selling price for every Russian cargo.

For broader market context, ScrapMonster's October 2026 Scrap Market Scorecard documented an LME month-two Steel Scrap CFR Turkey quotation of $401.50/MT on October 29, compared with $397.50/MT on October 1.

These are dated futures benchmark quotations, not Russian-specific export transaction prices.

More recent ScrapMonster weekly market reporting indicated renewed Turkish replacement buying for November and December shipments, although weak rebar demand continued to limit purchasing activity.

Ruslom Forecasts 2.18 Million Tonnes of Exports in 2026

Ruslom expects Russian scrap exports to reach approximately 2.18 million tonnes for the full year, representing a 9% increase from 2025.

Exports outside the EAEU are projected to reach 1.83 million tonnes, up 33.3%, while shipments to Belarus and Kazakhstan are forecast to fall 44% to approximately 350,000 tonnes.

Russia's 2026 tariff quota for ferrous scrap exports outside the EAEU is set at 2.2 million tonnes. Based on Ruslom's forecast, aggregate non-EAEU exports would remain below that ceiling.

The quota is distributed among exporters, meaning individual allocation constraints may arise even if the aggregate national limit is not exhausted.

Payment Delays and Shipping Constraints Pressure Scrap Suppliers

Russian scrap exporters continue to face difficulties with international payments and limited vessel availability, according to Dmitry Stechkevich, chief executive of Pskovvtormet.

Domestic trading conditions have also weakened. Delayed payments from Russian steelmakers reportedly disrupted scrap purchasing activity beginning in late October.

Ruslom expects domestic scrap consumption to decline 9% to approximately 13.3 million tonnes in 2026, reflecting pressure from weaker steel-sector demand and financing constraints.

The divergence between export growth and declining domestic consumption underscores the uneven conditions facing Russia's ferrous scrap industry.