Africa Steel Demand to Rise 4.4% as Scrap Trade Risks Grow

Africa's steel demand is projected to rise 4.4% in 2026, creating opportunities for recycled steel suppliers. Industry leaders at BIR Malaga warned that South African export duties, proposed EU shipment restrictions and infrastructure gaps could constrain collection, recycling investment and cross-border trade.

Summary

Africa’s Steel Demand and Production Are Growing
Africa’s steel demand is projected to rise by approximately 4.4% in 2026, while crude steel production reached 19 million tonnes in the first nine months, representing nearly 10% year-on-year growth. These trends could create opportunities for recycled steel suppliers across the continent.
Trade Restrictions Could Hamper Scrap Recycling Investment
Industry leaders warned that domestic sales preferences and South Africa’s 20% export duty could discourage scrap collection and weaken investment in recycling. Proposed European Union waste shipment rules could also affect recycled metal exports to Egypt and Morocco.
Demographics and Infrastructure Offer Long-Term Growth Potential
Africa’s young population, infrastructure development needs and growing reliance on imported scrap were identified as important long-term growth drivers. BIR Ferrous Division President Shane Mellor stressed that the continent comprises diverse markets requiring tailored approaches to scrap collection, processing and trade.

Africa's Steel Demand Set to Rise 4.4% as Scrap Trade Barriers Raise Concerns

Africa's expanding steel industry is creating new opportunities for recycled steel suppliers, but trade restrictions, infrastructure gaps and investment risks could limit growth. Industry leaders at BIR Malaga 2026 called for market-specific approaches to scrap collection, processing and international trade.

By Paul Ploumis
Published: October 29, 2026

Key Points

Steel demand: Africa's steel consumption is projected to grow approximately 4.4% in 2026.
Production: Crude steel output reached 19 million tonnes in January–September, up nearly 10% year over year.
South Africa: Domestic sales preferences and a 20% scrap export duty could discourage recycling investment.
EU trade rules: Proposed waste-shipment restrictions could affect recycled metal exports to Egypt and Morocco.

MONTREAL (Scrap Monster): Africa's growing steel industry presents opportunities for recycled steel suppliers, although infrastructure limitations, restrictive trade policies and investment risks remain significant challenges, according to industry leaders at the Bureau of International Recycling (BIR) World Recycling Convention in Malaga, Spain.

During the Ferrous Division's October 27 plenary session, experts highlighted the continent's growth potential and the need for strategies tailored to individual markets.

African steel demand is projected to increase 4.4% in 2026, while crude steel production reached 19 million tonnes during the first nine months, nearly 10% above the corresponding period in 2025.

BIR Ferrous Division President Shane Mellor emphasized that Africa comprises distinct markets at different stages of steelmaking and recycling development, requiring different approaches to collection, processing and trade.

Trade Restrictions Could Limit Recycling Investment

Donald MacKay, CEO of XA Global Trade Advisors, warned that South Africa's domestic scrap sales preferences and 20% export duty, intended to support local steelmakers, could weaken scrap collection incentives and discourage investment in recycling operations.

Atilla Widnell, Managing Director of Navigate Commodities, also raised concerns about proposed European Union waste-shipment restrictions that could affect recycled metal exports to Egypt and Morocco.

Despite these challenges, speakers identified Africa's young population, growing infrastructure requirements and increasing reliance on imported scrap as important long-term opportunities for the recycling industry.

The discussions highlighted the importance of balancing domestic steelmaking objectives with competitive scrap markets and investment in recycling infrastructure.

ScrapMonster Edge: Rising Steel Demand Does Not Guarantee Stronger Scrap Markets

Africa's projected 4.4% steel demand growth presents opportunities for scrap suppliers, but trade policies could determine how much of that growth benefits recyclers.

In South Africa, domestic sales preferences and a 20% export duty are intended to support local steelmakers. However, restrictions on access to overseas buyers could weaken scrap collection incentives and investment.

The industry takeaway: Growing steel production creates potential demand for recycled metal, but competitive collection networks, processing capacity and reliable trade channels are essential to turning that demand into sustainable recycling activity.

Also Read

POLL

What is Africa’s projected steel demand growth for 2026?

2.5%

3.2%

4.4%

Frequently Asked Questions

What growth opportunities does Africa’s steel industry offer recycled steel suppliers?

Africa’s steel demand is projected to increase by approximately 4.4% in 2026, while crude steel production grew by nearly 10% year on year during the first nine months. Rising steelmaking activity and infrastructure requirements could create opportunities for recycled steel suppliers.

What challenges could limit the growth of Africa’s scrap recycling industry?

Infrastructure gaps, restrictive trade policies and investment risks remain key obstacles. Industry leaders also warned that export duties and proposed changes to international waste shipment regulations could discourage scrap collection and complicate cross-border trade.

How could South Africa’s export duty affect the recycling industry?

South Africa’s 20% export duty, alongside domestic sales preferences, is intended to support local steelmakers. However, XA Global Trade Advisors CEO Donald MacKay warned that these measures could discourage scrap collection and undermine investment in the recycling sector.