HSBC Sees Gold Surging Past $5,000 in H1 2026, Flags Possible H2 Pullback

SEATTLE (Scrap Monster): Gold prices could surge to fresh record highs in the first half of the year before facing a sharp correction later on, according to a new outlook from HSBC, as geopolitical risks and monetary policy uncertainty continue to drive volatility in the bullion market.

In a research note released this week, HSBC said it expects gold to climb as high as $5,050 per ounce within the first six months, revising its earlier peak target of $5,000. The bank warned, however, that prices could retreat significantly in the second half of the year, potentially falling to $3,950 per ounce if geopolitical tensions ease or if the US Federal Reserve pauses its rate-cutting cycle.

For full-year 2026, HSBC forecasts gold to trade within a wide $5,050–$3,950 range, reflecting heightened uncertainty. The bank slightly lowered its average 2026 price estimate to $4,587 per ounce, down from $4,600, while projecting an end-of-year price of $4,450 per ounce.

Despite the risk of correction, analysts remain constructive on gold’s medium-term outlook. HSBC cited strong central bank buying, expectations of a weaker US dollar, and continued inflows into gold-backed ETFs as key structural supports.

Looking beyond 2026, HSBC raised its long-term forecasts, projecting average prices of $4,625 in 2027, $4,700 in 2028, and $4,775 in 2029, underscoring gold’s enduring appeal amid global uncertainty.

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