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World Bank Raises 2027 Copper Price Forecast 18% to $13,000/Tonne
The World Bank has raised its 2027 copper price forecast by 18%, citing persistent supply constraints and growing demand from electricity grids, electric vehicles and data centres. The revised outlook points to elevated copper prices despite uncertainty across broader commodity markets.
By Paul Ploumis
Published: October 29, 2026
Key Points
- 2027 Copper Forecast: Raised 18% to $13,000 per metric ton.
- 2026 Forecast: Average copper price projected at $13,200 per tonne.
- Supply Pressures: Mine disruptions, declining ore grades and lengthy development timelines constrain production growth.
- Metals Outlook: The World Bank forecasts a 25% rise in its metals and minerals price index in 2026, followed by a 3.3% decline in 2027.
MONTREAL (Scrap Monster): The World Bank has increased its 2027 copper price forecast by 18% to $13,000 per metric ton, reflecting persistent supply constraints and anticipated growth in demand from electricity infrastructure, data centres and electric vehicles.
The revised projection, published in the bank's October 2026 Commodity Markets Outlook, is just 1.5% below its expected 2026 average of $13,200 per tonne, indicating that copper prices could remain elevated next year.
Mine Disruptions and Electrification Support Copper Outlook
Copper supply growth remains constrained by lengthy mine development timelines, operational disruptions and declining ore grades.
Weather-related challenges continue to affect mining operations in Indonesia, while Chile faces production difficulties associated with aging deposits and lower ore grades.
Meanwhile, the World Bank expects copper demand to strengthen during 2027–2028, supported by investments in electric vehicles, electricity grids and data centres.
The projected recovery follows a modest decline in global copper consumption during the first half of 2026.
U.S. Tariff Uncertainty Influences Copper Trade
Trade uncertainty has added another complication to global copper markets.
Expectations of potential U.S. import tariffs encouraged shipments into American warehouses, contributing to a widening price difference between copper traded on COMEX and the London Metal Exchange (LME).
For the broader metals sector, the World Bank forecasts a 25% increase in its metals and minerals price index in 2026, followed by a 3.3% decline in 2027.
Despite that projected correction, the index would remain approximately 16% above its 2021 peak.
ScrapMonster Edge: An 18% Forecast Upgrade Does Not Mean an 18% Price Increase
The World Bank's 18% revision represents an increase from its previous 2027 price forecast, not an expected 18% rise in copper prices next year.
Its updated projections instead indicate a modest decline from $13,200 per tonne in 2026 to $13,000 in 2027.
For scrap markets: Elevated refined copper prices provide important pricing context for recyclers and processors, but do not guarantee equivalent increases in scrap buying prices. Grade, recovery, regional demand and processing costs remain important.
