By 
China Copper Import Premium Hits $205/MT as U.S. Stockpiles Grow
China's copper import premium reached $205 per metric ton on October 28, reflecting tight physical availability despite forecasts of a global refined copper surplus. Large U.S. inventories and uncertainty over potential tariffs continue to complicate international copper flows.
By Paul Ploumis
Published: October 29, 2026
Market data: October 28, 2026
Key Points
- China import premium: Yangshan copper warrant premium reached $205/MT, up $17.
- North China: Domestic spot copper premium rose CNY 160/MT to CNY 690/MT.
- Global copper balance: ICSG forecasts refined surpluses of 104,000 tonnes in 2026 and 368,000 tonnes in 2027.
- Trade uncertainty: U.S. copper stockpiling and potential refined copper tariffs are influencing global metal availability.
MONTREAL (Scrap Monster): China's copper import premiums climbed to record levels on October 28, 2026, as limited physical supply pushed buyers to pay more for available metal.
According to Shanghai Metals Market (SMM), the Yangshan premium for registered copper warrants reached $205 per metric ton above the London Metal Exchange (LME) benchmark, an increase of $17 from the previous session.
In North China, domestic spot copper premiums rose CNY 160/MT to CNY 690/MT over the front-month futures contract, as suppliers reduced offers and available cargo remained limited.
Global Copper Surplus Masks Regional Supply Tightness
The sharp increase in Chinese premiums contrasts with the International Copper Study Group's (ICSG) forecast of a global refined copper surplus.
ICSG projects 28.69 million tonnes of refined copper production against 28.59 million tonnes of usage in 2026, leaving an estimated surplus of 104,000 tonnes. That surplus is expected to widen to 368,000 tonnes in 2027.
However, copper availability remains uneven across regions.
Global exchange inventories have exceeded 1.2 million tonnes, with substantial volumes concentrated in U.S. warehouses amid uncertainty over future refined copper import tariffs.
Meanwhile, Shanghai Futures Exchange copper inventories stood near 54,400 tonnes after falling more than 25% during the previous week.
ICSG has also reduced its 2026 copper mine-production growth forecast to 1.3% from 1.6%, citing disruptions and weaker output expectations in major producing countries.
U.S. Tariff Uncertainty Shapes Copper Trade Flows
Uncertainty over possible U.S. tariffs on refined copper has encouraged traders to accumulate metal in American warehouses, limiting the availability of some supplies elsewhere.
Refined copper was excluded from the 50% U.S. tariffs imposed on certain semi-finished copper products in 2025. However, potential duties on refined copper beginning in 2027 remain under consideration.
A decision against additional tariffs could encourage some U.S.-held copper to move back into international markets. Continued uncertainty, meanwhile, may discourage inventory releases.
The timing and extent of any shift remain uncertain.
ScrapMonster Edge: Copper Availability Matters as Much as Global Supply
The latest premium increases highlight a distinction between global copper supply and metal immediately available to regional buyers.
China's $205/MT Yangshan assessment applies to imported registered copper warrants relative to LME pricing, while the CNY 690/MT North China premium reflects domestic copper cathode pricing against Shanghai futures. They are separate assessments, not interchangeable quotations.
Industry takeaway: Even when global refined production exceeds consumption, regional inventories, shipping costs and trade policies can create significant differences in the prices industrial buyers pay.
Chinese Fabricators Face Higher Copper Procurement Costs
Rising physical premiums are increasing procurement costs for Chinese copper fabricators, particularly those purchasing metal in the spot market while supplying customers under previously negotiated contracts.
Producers and traders with available refined copper outside the United States may benefit from stronger Asian premiums, provided they can deliver material competitively.
For now, the Yangshan premium, Chinese copper inventories and U.S. tariff developments remain important indicators of whether the regional supply imbalance is easing or intensifying.
Courtesy: www.cruxinvestor.com