Supply Constraints Threaten to Double Copper & Nickel Prices by 2035
Copper | 2026-10-08 06:40:48
Copper faces a potential refined supply gap of 1.5 million to 6.5 million tonnes by 2035, equivalent to around 11% of projected demand. Under a net-zero scenario, the shortfall could even reach 17%.
By Paul Ploumis
SEATTLE (Scrap Monster): Copper and nickel prices could nearly double over the next decade, according to a new report from global financial services firm Coface. This is mainly due to anticipated high demand from electrification, construction and clean-energy technologies.
The report projects that aluminum, copper and nickel could face average supply deficits of about 10% of demand by 2035. Copper supply is expected to grow only 1% annually over the coming decade, while nickel output is forecast to increase 1.5% a year. Demand for both metals is projected to rise about 1.8% annually, the report noted.
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Copper faces a potential refined supply gap of 1.5 million to 6.5 million tonnes by 2035, equivalent to around 11% of projected demand. Under a net-zero scenario, the shortfall could even reach 17%.
Nickel presents an even greater risk, with the report estimating a potential deficit of around 35% of projected demand under the net-zero scenario, largely due to battery manufacturing requirements.
The energy transition is expected to account for about 35% of global copper and nickel consumption by 2035. Alongside, data-center expansion is expected to add further pressure to copper demand.
Coface report noted that China controls about 70% of refining capacity for 19 of 20 key minerals. The country accounts for more than 50% of the global steel, aluminum, and refined copper production, it said.
POLL
Which factor is likely to have the greatest impact on copper and nickel demand through 2035?
Frequently Asked Questions
- Why could copper and nickel prices nearly double by 2035?
Coface attributes the potential price increase primarily to supply constraints and rapidly rising demand. Electrification, clean-energy technologies, construction, battery production and data-center expansion are expected to put increasing pressure on available supplies.
- How large could the copper supply deficit become?
The report estimates a potential refined copper supply gap of 1.5 million to 6.5 million tonnes by 2035, equivalent to roughly 11% of projected demand. Under a net-zero scenario, the deficit could rise to about 17%.
- Why is nickel particularly vulnerable to a supply shortage?
Nickel demand is expected to receive significant support from battery manufacturing. Under the net-zero scenario, Coface estimates that the nickel supply deficit could reach approximately 35% of projected demand, making the metal particularly exposed to supply-demand imbalances.