U.S. Copper Output to Hold Steady in 2025; Major Project Ramp-Ups Expected to Drive Strong Growth from 2026
Copper | 2025-11-25 11:10:44
Additionally, the start-up of large-scale projects such as the Mesaba in 2029 and Ann Mason in 2030 will significantly lift the U.S. copper production.
By Paul Ploumis
SEATTLE (Scrap Monster): The United States is projected to maintain relatively stable copper production levels in 2025, with only a modest uptick estimated at around 1.7% year-over-year, according to industry forecasts. Although growth will remain limited in the near term, analysts expect a more substantial rebound beginning in 2026 as key mining projects transition to higher output stages.
The muted increase in 2025 is largely attributed to intentionally reduced production schedules at major operations. Both the Kennecott Copper Project and the Phoenix Mine—the latter jointly owned by Barrick Gold and Newmont—are expected to scale back output this year, with the Phoenix operation processing lower-grade ore, resulting in decreased yields.
Growth Outlook Strengthens from 2026
Industry prospects improve significantly beyond 2025. The launch of underground mining at Kennecott is expected to support a production upswing next year. Additionally, the upcoming Florence and Copperwood projects, slated to begin production in 2026, are forecast to introduce roughly 70 kilotonnes per year of additional copper capacity to the U.S. market.
Looking further ahead, large-scale developments including the Mesaba project scheduled for 2029 and the Ann Mason project targeted for 2030 are positioned to substantially boost national output. With these expansions, experts predict the U.S. could rise into the top five global copper producers by 2030, with further ranking improvements expected by 2035.
Rising domestic copper production aligns with increasing demand driven by clean energy technologies, electric vehicles, and infrastructure investments, reinforcing a strong long-term outlook for the sector.
POLL
Will U.S. copper output significantly increase after 2025?
Frequently Asked Questions
- What is the U.S. copper production outlook for 2025?
The United States copper production is expected to remain relatively stable in 2025, with industry forecasts projecting a modest 1.7% year-over-year increase. This steady growth reflects continued operations at existing copper mines despite reduced output from major facilities like the Kennecott Copper Project and Phoenix Mine. Both operations are intentionally processing lower-grade ore, which impacts overall production volumes. However, the stable outlook demonstrates the resilience of the U.S. copper mining sector and its ability to maintain consistent supply for domestic and international markets. Looking beyond 2025, stronger growth is anticipated in 2026 when large-scale projects come online.
- Why is U.S. copper production growth limited in 2025?
U.S. copper production growth is constrained in 2025 primarily due to reduced output schedules at major mining operations. Two key facilities are significantly impacting overall production levels: the Kennecott Copper Project and the Phoenix Mine. Both operations have intentionally reduced their production schedules to process lower-grade ore deposits. The Phoenix Mine, jointly owned by Barrick Gold and Newmont, is specifically processing lower-grade ore which results in decreased copper yields. These operational adjustments reflect natural mining cycles and ore body characteristics rather than market conditions. The industry is strategically managing existing resources while preparing for expansion projects scheduled for 2026 and beyond.
