ICSG Forecasts Global Copper Surplus Through 2027
Copper | 2026-06-30 06:05:36
Despite the slower outlook, long-term demand fundamentals remain positive, ICSG noted.
By Paul Ploumis
SEATTLE (Scrap Monster): The global copper market is expected to remain adequately supplied over the next two years, according to the latest forecast from the International Copper Study Group (ICSG). This is primarily on account of anticipated robust mine production and refined output growth.
The ICSG projects a 96,000-tonne surplus in the refined copper market during 2026, with the surplus expected to widen sharply to 377,000 tonnes in 2027.
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Global copper mine production is forecast to increase by 1.6% in 2026 and 2.3% in 2027. The 2026 estimate has been lowered from earlier projections due to weaker output expectations in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Chile, and Indonesia. On the other hand, ICSG foresees production gains from several countries, including Mongolia, Russia, China, and Uzbekistan.
Meanwhile, world refined copper production is expected to rise by 0.4% in 2026 before accelerating to 3% in 2027.
On the demand side, the ICSG now expects global refined copper usage to grow by 1.6% in 2026 and 2% in 2027, lower than previous forecasts. China is projected to record demand growth of 1.9% this year, while consumption in the rest of the world is expected to increase by 1.3%.
Despite the slower outlook, long-term demand fundamentals remain positive, ICSG noted.
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Frequently Asked Questions
- What is the ICSG's outlook for the global copper market over the next two years?
The ICSG expects the refined copper market to remain in surplus, projecting excess supply of 96,000 tonnes in 2026 and 377,000 tonnes in 2027.
- What factors are expected to drive the copper market surplus?
Strong growth in global mine production and refined copper output is expected to outpace demand growth, resulting in a sustained market surplus.
- How is global copper demand expected to perform through 2027?
Refined copper demand is forecast to increase by 1.6% in 2026 and 2.0% in 2027, with China leading growth at 1.9% in 2026, while long-term demand fundamentals remain favorable.
