Global Copper Surplus Seen Rising Sharply by 2027, Says ICSG
Copper | 2026-04-29 06:32:44
Refined copper production is forecast to rise marginally by 0.4% in 2026 before accelerating to 3% in 2027
By Paul Ploumis
SEATTLE (Scrap Monster): The International Copper Study Group has released its latest outlook for the global copper market, projecting moderate supply growth and emerging surpluses through 2027 amid evolving demand conditions.
According to the group’s April 2026 meeting in Lisbon, global mine production is expected to grow by 1.6% in 2026, revised down from earlier estimates due to weaker output projections in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Chile, and Indonesia. Production constraints at major mines such as Grasberg mine and Kamoa-Kakula mine continue to weigh on output. However, growth is supported by expansions at Oyu Tolgoi and Malmyz, alongside capacity increases in China and Uzbekistan.
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Refined copper production is forecast to rise marginally by 0.4% in 2026 before accelerating to 3% in 2027, driven by improved concentrate availability and expansion in secondary (scrap-based) output.
On the demand side, global refined copper usage is projected to increase by 1.6% in 2026 and 2% in 2027. While China is expected to remain the primary demand driver, consumption in regions such as the European Union and Japan is likely to stay subdued.
The ICSG projects a refined copper surplus of approximately 96,000 tonnes in 2026, widening significantly to 377,000 tonnes in 2027, reflecting softer demand and increased secondary supply.
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Frequently Asked Questions
- What is the outlook for global copper supply?
Mine production is expected to grow moderately, supported by expansions but constrained by weaker output in major producing countries.
- What is driving refined copper production growth?
Improved availability of raw materials (concentrates) and increased secondary (scrap-based) production are key contributors.
- How is demand expected to evolve?
Demand will grow steadily, led by China, while regions like the European Union and Japan are expected to remain relatively weak.
