Copper, Nickel Prices Could Nearly Double by 2035: Coface Report

Copper | 2026-10-08 20:29:40

Coface says copper and nickel prices could nearly double over the next decade as supply growth fails to keep pace with rising demand. Copper could face a refined supply gap of up to 6.5 million tonnes by 2035, while nickel faces an even larger potential deficit under a net-zero scenario.

Copper, Nickel Prices Could Nearly Double by 2035: Coface Report

Summary

Copper and nickel face significant supply shortages
Coface expects aluminum, copper and nickel to face average supply deficits of around 10% of demand by 2035. Copper supply is forecast to grow just 1% annually, while nickel output may rise 1.5%, compared with approximately 1.8% annual demand growth for both metals.
Energy transition to drive metals demand
Electrification, construction and clean-energy technologies are expected to significantly increase consumption of copper and nickel. The energy transition alone could account for about 35% of global copper and nickel demand by 2035, while expanding data centers are expected to add further pressure on copper supplies.
China maintains a dominant refining position
Copper could face a refined supply gap of 1.5 million to 6.5 million tonnes by 2035, while nickel could see an even larger shortfall under a net-zero scenario. Coface also highlighted China's dominance, noting that the country controls about 70% of refining capacity for 19 of 20 key minerals.

Copper, Nickel Prices Could Nearly Double by 2035

Coface projects widening supply constraints for copper and nickel over the next decade, with demand growth expected to outpace new supply as electrification, clean energy, construction and battery manufacturing increase metals consumption.

By Paul Ploumis
Published October 8, 2026

Key Points

Coface says copper and nickel prices could nearly double over the next decade as supply growth struggles to keep pace with demand.
Aluminum, copper and nickel could face average supply deficits equivalent to about 10% of demand by 2035.
Copper could face a refined supply gap of 1.5 million to 6.5 million tonnes by 2035, or around 11% of projected demand.
Under a net-zero scenario, Coface estimates the nickel deficit could reach about 35% of projected demand.
The energy transition could account for roughly 35% of global copper and nickel consumption by 2035.

Supply Growth Expected to Trail Demand

MONTREAL (Scrap Monster): Copper and nickel prices could nearly double over the next decade, according to a new report from global financial services firm Coface, as demand from electrification, construction and clean-energy technologies puts increasing pressure on available supply.

The report projects that aluminum, copper and nickel could face average supply deficits of about 10% of demand by 2035.

Copper supply is expected to grow only 1% annually over the coming decade, while nickel output is forecast to increase 1.5% a year. Demand for both metals is projected to rise about 1.8% annually, the report noted.

Copper and Nickel Deficits Could Deepen

Copper faces a potential refined supply gap of 1.5 million to 6.5 million tonnes by 2035, equivalent to around 11% of projected demand. Under a net-zero scenario, the shortfall could reach 17%.

Nickel presents an even greater potential imbalance. Coface estimates that its supply deficit could reach around 35% of projected demand under the net-zero scenario, largely because of battery manufacturing requirements.

The energy transition is expected to account for about 35% of global copper and nickel consumption by 2035. Data-center expansion is also expected to add further pressure to copper demand.

China Retains Dominant Refining Position

The Coface report noted that China controls about 70% of refining capacity for 19 of 20 key minerals.

The country also accounts for more than 50% of global steel, aluminum and refined copper production, according to the report.

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POLL

Which factor is likely to have the greatest impact on copper and nickel demand through 2035?

Declining construction activity

Energy transition and electrification

Lower battery production

Frequently Asked Questions

Why could copper and nickel prices nearly double by 2035?

Coface attributes the potential price increase primarily to supply constraints and rapidly rising demand. Electrification, clean-energy technologies, construction, battery production and data-center expansion are expected to put increasing pressure on available supplies.

How large could the copper supply deficit become?

The report estimates a potential refined copper supply gap of 1.5 million to 6.5 million tonnes by 2035, equivalent to roughly 11% of projected demand. Under a net-zero scenario, the deficit could rise to about 17%.

Why is nickel particularly vulnerable to a supply shortage?

Nickel demand is expected to receive significant support from battery manufacturing. Under the net-zero scenario, Coface estimates that the nickel supply deficit could reach approximately 35% of projected demand, making the metal particularly exposed to supply-demand imbalances.