World Bank Forecasts Prolonged Copper Tightness, Bumps 2027 Outlook by 18%
Copper | 2026-10-29 06:56:56
According to the bank, next year’s expected average price is just 1.5% below its forecast of $13,200 per tonne for 2026.
By Paul Ploumis
SEATTLE (Scrap Monster): The World Bank has raised its 2027 copper price forecast by 18% to $13,000 per tonne, mainly due to persistent supply constraints and growing demand from electricity infrastructure, data centres and electric vehicles. The revised projection was published in the bank’s October 2026 Commodity Markets Outlook.
According to the bank, next year’s expected average price is just 1.5% below its forecast of $13,200 per tonne for 2026. The outlook signals continued strength in the copper market despite broader uncertainty across commodity sectors.
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Prolonged mine development timelines, operational disruptions and declining ore grades are restricting the rapid expansion of production. Indonesia continues to face weather-related challenges, while operational difficulties and lower-grade deposits are affecting output in Chile.
Copper demand is expected to jump during 2027–28, mainly driven by electric vehicles and increased investments in electricity grids and data centres. It must be noted that global copper consumption has edged lower during the first half of 2026.
Trade uncertainty has further complicated market conditions. Expectations of potential U.S. import tariffs encouraged shipments into American warehouses, widening the price difference between Comex and London Metal Exchange copper.
The World Bank expects its metals and minerals price index to increase 25% in 2026 before declining 3.3% in 2027. Despite the projected correction, the index would remain 16% above its 2021 peak.
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What is the World Bank’s revised copper price forecast for 2027?
Frequently Asked Questions
- What is the World Bank’s copper price forecast for 2027?
The World Bank forecasts an average copper price of $13,000 per tonne in 2027, an 18% increase from its previous projection. The revised forecast reflects persistent supply constraints and rising demand from electricity infrastructure, data centres and electric vehicles.
- Why are copper supply constraints expected to persist?
Copper production growth is being restricted by prolonged mine development timelines, operational disruptions and declining ore grades. Weather-related challenges in Indonesia and operational difficulties involving lower-grade deposits in Chile are also affecting supply.
- Which sectors are expected to drive copper demand growth?
Electric vehicles, electricity grid infrastructure and data centres are expected to be major drivers of copper demand during 2027–28. These sectors require copper for electrical systems, power transmission and supporting infrastructure, although consumption declined slightly in the first half of 2026.