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Global Steel Demand Flat in 2026 as India Drives 2027 Recovery
Global steel demand is expected to remain essentially unchanged at 1,722 million tonnes in 2026 before rising 1.7% to 1,752 million tonnes in 2027, with continued weakness in China masking significantly stronger demand growth across most of the rest of the world.
By Paul Ploumis
Published October 13, 2026
Key Points
- Global steel demand: → Flat at 1,722 Mt in 2026.
- 2027 forecast: ↑1.7% to 1,752 Mt.
- Forecast revision: worldsteel cut its 2027 projection by 10 Mt from the April forecast of 1,762 Mt.
- India: Demand forecast at 172.4 Mt in 2026 and 186.2 Mt in 2027.
- China: Demand expected to fall ↓2.0% in 2026 and another ↓1.0% in 2027.
- Outside China: Steel demand is forecast to accelerate to ↑4.0% growth in 2027.
- United States: Demand projected to rise 2.0% in 2026 and about 1.5% in 2027.
SEATTLE (Scrap Monster): Global steel demand is expected to remain stagnant in 2026 before returning to moderate growth next year, according to the World Steel Association’s October 2026 Short Range Outlook.
worldsteel forecasts global demand at 1,722 million tonnes this year, essentially unchanged from 2025, before rising ↑1.7% to 1,752 million tonnes in 2027.
The forecast represents a downgrade from April, when the association expected demand to grow 0.3% to 1,724 Mt in 2026 and another 2.2% to 1,762 Mt in 2027.
ScrapMonster Exclusive: India Could Account for Nearly Half of Global Steel Demand Growth in 2027
The headline says global steel demand will grow by 1.7% next year. The more revealing number is where those additional tonnes are expected to come from.
Global demand is forecast to increase from 1,722 Mt in 2026 to 1,752 Mt in 2027 — a net gain of approximately 30 million tonnes.
India alone is expected to increase steel demand from 172.4 Mt to 186.2 Mt over the same period, adding 13.8 million tonnes.
That means India by itself accounts for roughly 46% of the net increase in worldwide steel demand projected for 2027.
That does not mean almost half of every growing steel market is located in India. It means India's projected tonnage increase is equivalent to nearly half of the world's net year-over-year increase after declines and gains across all countries are combined.
China explains the other side of the story. worldsteel says almost the entire downward revision from its April outlook is related to China, where weaker-than-expected property investment and infrastructure activity are offsetting continued growth in manufacturing demand.
Outside China, the recovery has not disappeared. Steel demand excluding China is forecast to rise 1.5% in 2026 and accelerate to 4.0% in 2027 — exactly the 2027 pace worldsteel expected six months ago.
For mills, scrap suppliers and raw-material buyers, that distinction matters. A flat global headline can hide expanding steel consumption in India, the United States, parts of developing Asia and eventually Europe, while Chinese demand continues a structural decline.
October Forecast Cuts 10 Million Tonnes From 2027 Outlook
The latest worldsteel outlook is weaker than the association’s April projection, but the size of the revision is relatively concentrated.
| Global Steel Demand | April 2026 Forecast | October 2026 Forecast | Revision |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1,724 Mt | 1,722 Mt | ↓2 Mt |
| 2027 | 1,762 Mt | 1,752 Mt | ↓10 Mt |
| 2027 Growth Rate | 2.2% | 1.7% | ↓0.5 percentage point |
worldsteel said the recovery anticipated in April is developing more slowly and gradually than initially expected.
However, the association stressed that the broader recovery outside China remains largely intact.
China Remains the Main Drag on Global Steel Demand
China’s steel demand is now expected to decline ↓2.0% in 2026, compared with the 1.5% decline forecast in April.
Demand is projected to fall another ↓1.0% in 2027.
worldsteel said the property investment downturn has not moderated as quickly as previously expected.
Infrastructure investment, which had been expected to support steel use in 2026, has also remained in negative territory.
Manufacturing demand continues to grow, supported partly by exports, but that increase has not been large enough to offset weakness in real estate and infrastructure.
For 2027, worldsteel expects the property contraction to ease but remain negative. Trade friction is also emerging as an additional risk to China's manufacturing-driven steel demand.
India Remains the Fastest-Growing Major Steel Market
India continues to provide the strongest growth story among the world's major steel-consuming economies.
Steel demand is forecast to rise ↑7.9% to 172.4 Mt in 2026 and another ↑8.0% to 186.2 Mt in 2027.
worldsteel described the expansion as broad-based.
Infrastructure-led construction remains the principal demand driver, while private real estate, manufacturing investment, renewable-energy projects, machinery production and automotive output are also contributing.
| India Steel Demand | Demand | Annual Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 172.4 Mt | ↑7.9% |
| 2027 | 186.2 Mt | ↑8.0% |
Developing Economies Outside China Accelerate in 2027
Steel demand across developing economies excluding China is projected to grow ↑1.9% in 2026 before accelerating to ↑5.1% in 2027.
The relatively weak 2026 figure largely reflects the Middle East.
Elsewhere, worldsteel said underlying momentum remains intact, with developing Asia expected to contribute strongly to the 2027 rebound.
ASEAN-5 demand is forecast to increase ↑5.2% in 2026 before moderating to 3.2% in 2027.
Vietnam is a standout market, with apparent steel use expected to reach approximately 30 Mt for the first time amid strong construction activity and public investment.
Gulf Steel Demand Faces an 11% Drop
The Gulf Cooperation Council region shows one of the most dramatic swings in the entire outlook.
GCC steel demand increased ↑17.7% in 2025, supported by economic-diversification programs, housing and major project development.
worldsteel now expects demand to fall approximately ↓11% in 2026 because regional conflict has delayed project awards, construction starts and financing decisions.
The association views much of that weakness as deferred rather than permanently lost demand.
Under its current assumptions, Gulf steel consumption could rebound ↑11.3% in 2027, returning demand to approximately its 2025 level.
Developed Markets Recover, But From a Much Smaller Base
Developed-economy steel demand is forecast to rise ↑1.0% in 2026 and ↑2.2% in 2027.
But worldsteel cautioned against overstating the recovery.
Steel demand across developed economies in 2025 remained about 60 Mt, or 15%, below 2017–2018 levels.
The projected improvement during 2026 and 2027 recovers only about 10 Mt of that lost volume — roughly one-sixth of the gap.
A return to pre-downturn consumption levels therefore remains a longer-term prospect.
European Union Demand Expected to Recover in 2027
EU apparent steel use is forecast to decline ↓0.3% in 2026 before recovering ↑3.1% in 2027.
The 2026 forecast was cut by 1.5 percentage points from the April outlook.
worldsteel said part of the stronger-than-expected 2025 demand reflected inventory building ahead of the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism taking effect in 2026.
Underlying construction conditions have remained weaker than expected, while automotive demand continues to weigh on steel consumption.
The association expects stronger infrastructure, defence, energy and rail investment to support a more meaningful recovery beginning in 2027.
U.S. Steel Demand Rises 2% in 2026
For North American market participants, the U.S. outlook remains comparatively positive.
U.S. apparent steel use is projected to increase ↑2.0% in 2026 and approximately ↑1.5% in 2027.
worldsteel said current demand growth is being supported by:
- Data-centre construction
- Power-generation infrastructure
- Renewable-energy investment
- Oil and gas projects
- Selected manufacturing investment
- Large non-residential construction projects
Residential construction remains considerably weaker.
Elevated mortgage rates, affordability constraints and construction costs are expected to keep U.S. housing activity comparatively soft into 2027.
Regional Steel Demand Outlook
| Market | 2026 | 2027 | Key Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Global | → Flat | ↑1.7% | Gradual recovery |
| China | ↓2.0% | ↓1.0% | Structural contraction continues |
| India | ↑7.9% | ↑8.0% | Fastest-growing major market |
| Developing economies ex-China | ↑1.9% | ↑5.1% | Strong acceleration expected |
| GCC | ↓~11% | ↑11.3% | Conflict delays projects |
| Developed economies | ↑1.0% | ↑2.2% | Recovery from depressed base |
| European Union | ↓0.3% | ↑3.1% | Recovery pushed into 2027 |
| United States | ↑2.0% | ↑~1.5% | Infrastructure and mega-projects support demand |
| ASEAN-5 | ↑5.2% | ↑3.2% | Vietnam remains a standout |
What to Watch Next
China property demand: A faster stabilization in real estate would reduce the largest drag on the global forecast, while continued weakness could force further downward revisions.
India: With nearly 14 Mt of additional demand forecast for 2027 alone, India is becoming increasingly important to global steel consumption and raw-material flows.
U.S. mega-projects: Data centres, power infrastructure, energy projects and advanced manufacturing remain key supports for North American steel demand.
European recovery: The expected 3.1% rebound in EU steel demand depends on stronger construction, infrastructure, defence and industrial activity in 2027.
Middle East conflict: worldsteel's projected 11.3% Gulf rebound assumes postponed projects restart as security conditions and supply chains normalize.
Trade friction: Rising barriers to steel and steel-containing goods remain a risk, particularly for Chinese manufacturing and export demand.
ScrapMonster Market Read: The October outlook is weaker than April at the global level, but it is not a uniform steel-demand downgrade. China is doing most of the work pulling the headline lower. Outside China, worldsteel still expects demand growth to accelerate to 4% in 2027, while India alone could contribute nearly half of the world’s net additional steel consumption next year. For North American recyclers and mills, the U.S. forecast remains constructive but selective: growth is concentrated in data centres, energy infrastructure, manufacturing investment and other large non-residential projects rather than a broad housing-led expansion. The global market entering 2027 therefore looks less like one synchronized steel cycle and more like several very different regional cycles operating at the same time.
Source: World Steel Association, October 2026 Short Range Outlook.
