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SSAB Expects European Steel Shipments to Rise 5–10% in Q4 as EU Import Rules Tighten
Swedish steelmaker SSAB expects European shipments to increase 5–10% quarter over quarter in the fourth quarter of 2026, citing signs of improving market balance following tighter EU steel import restrictions. The company also reduced its annual capital expenditure forecast.
By Paul Ploumis
Published: November 1, 2026
Key Points
- Europe: SSAB expects Q4 steel shipments to rise 5–10% from Q3.
- EU trade measures: Annual duty-free steel import quotas were reduced 47% to 18.3 million metric tons, with a 50% duty on excess imports.
- Americas: Shipments are expected to remain relatively stable.
- Special Steels: Shipments may decline by up to 5% quarter over quarter.
- Capital spending: The 2026 forecast was reduced from SEK 13.5 billion to SEK 11.2 billion.
MONTREAL (Scrap Monster): Swedish steelmaker SSAB expects its European steel shipments to increase by 5–10% in the fourth quarter of 2026, citing signs of improving supply-demand balance following the European Union's revised steel import measures.
The rules, which took effect on July 1, reduced annual duty-free steel import quotas by approximately 47% to 18.3 million metric tons compared with 2024 levels. Imports exceeding applicable quotas face a 50% duty.
ScrapMonster Edge: Europe's Recovery Is Not Uniform Across SSAB
SSAB's outlook points to a regional difference in expected steel demand. European shipments are forecast to rise 5–10% following tighter import restrictions, while Americas shipments are expected to remain stable and Special Steels volumes may decline by up to 5%.
Industry takeaway: The anticipated improvement is concentrated in SSAB's European business rather than across all divisions. For steel buyers and suppliers, the key distinction is between a stronger regional shipment outlook and a company-wide recovery. The forecasts also come against expectations of higher raw material and other variable costs.
European Shipments Expected to Increase in Fourth Quarter
SSAB expects the revised EU import framework to support a more balanced European steel market by limiting duty-free imports and increasing duties on volumes exceeding allocated quotas.
Against that backdrop, shipments from SSAB Europe are projected to increase by 5–10% quarter over quarter.
In contrast, shipments from SSAB Americas are expected to remain broadly stable, while SSAB Special Steels volumes are forecast to decline by up to 5%.
Raw Material and Operating Costs Remain Elevated
Despite the improved European shipment outlook, SSAB expects raw material costs to rise during the fourth quarter.
Other variable operating expenses, including freight and energy, are also expected to remain elevated, maintaining cost pressure across the company's steel operations.
SSAB Cuts 2026 Capital Expenditure Forecast
SSAB lowered its forecast for 2026 maintenance and strategic capital expenditure from SEK 13.5 billion to SEK 11.2 billion.
The company attributed the reduction to adjustments in supplier payment schedules.
The revised forecast represents a SEK 2.3 billion reduction in expected spending for the year, reflecting changes in payment timing rather than an announced cancellation of the underlying investments.
Courtesy: www.yieh.com