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Chile Cuts 2026 Copper Output Forecast to 4.94 Million Tonnes as Supply Pressures Persist
Chile's copper commission Cochilco expects national mine production to fall 8.4% in 2026, significantly worse than its earlier forecast. The agency also lowered its 2027 recovery estimate while raising copper price projections amid continuing supply constraints.
By Paul Ploumis
Original publication: November 1, 2026
Cochilco forecast announcement: October 30, 2026
Key Points
- 2026 production: Forecast cut to 4.94 million metric tons, down 8.4% year over year.
- Major producers: Escondida, Spence and Codelco account for more than 77% of Chile's net production decline.
- Fourth-quarter requirement: Average monthly production of approximately 434,000 tonnes is needed to reach the annual forecast.
- 2027 outlook: Output expected to recover 3% to 5.08 million tonnes, below the previous 5.55-million-tonne estimate.
- Copper prices: Cochilco raised its average price forecasts to $6.18/lb for 2026 and $5.95/lb for 2027.
MONTREAL (Scrap Monster): Chile's copper commission, Cochilco, has sharply lowered its production forecasts for 2026 and 2027 as declining ore grades, maintenance and operational disruptions continue to constrain output in the world's largest copper-producing country.
The agency now expects Chilean copper production to fall 8.4% to 4.94 million metric tons in 2026, compared with its August forecast of a 2.6% decline to 5.27 million tonnes.
The revised estimate represents a reduction of approximately 330,000 tonnes from Cochilco's earlier projection.
ScrapMonster Edge: Chile's Fourth-Quarter Production Challenge
Chile produced 3.63 million tonnes of copper during January–September, leaving approximately 1.31 million tonnes needed in the fourth quarter to achieve Cochilco's revised annual forecast.
That requires monthly production averaging close to 434,000 tonnes, approximately 7.6% above the January–September monthly average, according to the commission.
Industry takeaway: Even after lowering its annual forecast, Chile must improve its production pace during the final quarter. With Escondida, Spence and Codelco accounting for most of the national decline, performance at these operations will be central to whether the revised output target is achieved. The challenge also reinforces concerns about the resilience of global copper mine supply.
Major Chilean Copper Mines Account for Most of the Decline
Production at BHP's Escondida and Spence operations, together with state-owned Codelco mines, accounts for more than 77% of Chile's net output decline, Cochilco reported.
During the first nine months of 2026, national copper production totaled 3.63 million tonnes, an 8.5% decrease from the same period in 2025.
The commission attributed weaker performance to declining ore grades, scheduled maintenance and operational disruptions affecting copper processing and recovery.
2027 Copper Production Recovery Forecast Reduced
Cochilco expects Chilean copper production to recover by approximately 3% in 2027 to 5.08 million metric tons.
That is substantially below its August projection of 5.55 million tonnes, indicating a more gradual recovery than previously anticipated.
The revised outlook suggests that operational improvements will be necessary to restore production levels following the substantial contraction expected in 2026.
Cochilco Raises Copper Price Forecasts for 2026 and 2027
Despite lowering its production outlook, Cochilco increased its average copper price forecasts for both years.
- 2026: $6.18 per pound, up from the previous forecast of $5.95/lb.
- 2027: $5.95 per pound, up from the earlier estimate of $5.10/lb.
The commission cited constrained mine supply and a refined copper market with limited capacity to absorb additional production disruptions.
The higher price forecasts reflect expectations of continued supply pressure, even as Chile prepares for a partial production recovery in 2027.
Courtesy: www.miningweekly.com
