U.S. Raw Steel Output Up 4.8% YoY Despite Weekly Pullback

U.S. raw steel production reached 1.801 million net tons in the week ended October 3, up 4.8% from a year earlier despite a 2.4% decline from the previous week. Year-to-date production remains 5.3% ahead of 2025 levels, according to the American Iron and Steel Institute.

By Paul Ploumis
Published October 6, 2026

MONTREAL (Scrap Monster): U.S. raw steel production remained comfortably above year-ago levels in early October, although mills eased output from the stronger pace recorded at the end of September.

Domestic mills produced 1.801 million net tons of raw steel during the week ended October 3, 2026, according to the latest data from the American Iron and Steel Institute.

That was 4.8% higher than the 1.718 million net tons produced during the corresponding week of 2025.

Capability utilization also remained stronger than a year ago, rising to 78.3% from 77.0%.

Weekly Steel Output Falls 2.4%

The latest production total was lower than the previous week's 1.845 million net tons.

That represents a decline of approximately 44,000 net tons, or 2.4%, from the week ended September 26.

Capability utilization fell at the same time, declining from 80.5% to 78.3%.

The 2.2-percentage-point drop brought utilization back below 80% after the stronger late-September reading.

The week-to-week retreat signals a moderation in mill operating rates, but not a reversal of the stronger year-over-year production trend.

Production Still 4.8% Above Last Year

The annual comparison remains firmly positive.

U.S. mills produced 1.718 million net tons during the corresponding week ended October 3, 2025.

The latest 1.801-million-ton total was therefore approximately 83,000 tons higher.

Capability utilization also improved by 1.3 percentage points from the 77.0% rate recorded during the comparable 2025 week.

The data indicate that U.S. steelmakers continue to operate at a higher production level than they did a year ago despite normal week-to-week fluctuations.

Year-to-Date Steel Production Up 5.3%

The stronger annual trend becomes clearer in the cumulative figures.

Adjusted U.S. raw steel production reached 71.967 million net tons through October 3.

That compares with 68.362 million net tons during the equivalent period of 2025.

The increase equals approximately 3.605 million net tons, or 5.3%.

Average capability utilization also improved to 79.0% from 77.1% during the comparable year-ago period.

Southern District Produces 802,000 Tons

The Southern district remained by far the largest U.S. steel-producing region during the latest week.

The Southern district's 802,000 tons represented approximately 44.5% of total U.S. raw steel production for the week.

The Great Lakes district ranked second with 522,000 tons, accounting for about 29% of output.

Together, the Southern and Great Lakes districts produced roughly 73.5% of total domestic raw steel during the week.

2026 Builds on Stronger 2025 Production

The latest figures extend a broader improvement in U.S. steel output.

AISI's annual statistical report showed U.S. raw steel production reached approximately 90 million net tons in 2025, up 3% from 2024.

Domestic steel mill shipments also increased 5% last year to approximately 91 million net tons.

At the same time, total steel imports fell 13% in 2025 and finished steel imports declined 17%, according to AISI.

The 5.3% increase in adjusted year-to-date raw steel production during 2026 therefore represents a continuation of the stronger domestic output trend established last year.

Why Capability Utilization Matters

Capability utilization measures how much of the industry's available production capability is being used.

The latest weekly reading of 78.3% is lower than the 80.5% recorded one week earlier but higher than the 77.0% rate from the comparable 2025 period.

The year-to-date utilization rate of 79.0% is also nearly two percentage points higher than last year's 77.1%.

For steel producers, sustained higher utilization generally means mills are spreading fixed production costs across greater output, although profitability also depends on steel prices, raw-material costs, product mix and demand.

What the Data Mean for Scrap Markets

Higher steel production is relevant to the ferrous scrap market because electric arc furnaces rely heavily on recycled steel as a raw material.

The weekly AISI data do not identify production by furnace type and therefore cannot be translated directly into a specific scrap-demand figure.

Still, sustained U.S. steel output above year-ago levels provides a supportive operating backdrop for domestic ferrous raw-material consumption, particularly where EAF mills are running at healthy utilization rates.

Regional production is also important. The Southern district's dominant share reflects the significant concentration of modern EAF-based steelmaking capacity in that part of the country.

Market Read

The latest AISI report presents two different time frames, and both matter.

In the short term, steel production clearly softened. Output fell 2.4% from the previous week and capability utilization dropped from 80.5% to 78.3%.

On the broader view, however, U.S. mills remain ahead of last year. Weekly production is 4.8% higher, year-to-date output is up 5.3% and average utilization has improved to 79.0%.

The Southern district continues to dominate domestic production, accounting for nearly 45% of weekly output, while the Southern and Great Lakes regions together produced almost three-quarters of the national total.

For steel and scrap-market participants, the more important question is whether the late-September-to-early-October slowdown develops into a broader reduction in mill operating rates or proves to be a normal weekly fluctuation within an otherwise stronger 2026 production cycle.