North American Softwood Lumber Prices Show Sharp Swings Amid Market Volatility

SEATTLE (Scrap Monster): The North American softwood lumber market experienced a sharp upswing in October, followed by a significant downturn in November, reflecting ongoing volatility in the sector. The October surge was fueled by tariff increases and a spike in buying activity, while sluggish demand, high interest rates, and a cooling housing market contributed to the subsequent slowdown.

In early October, Madison’s Lumber Prices Index showed signs of recovery, reaching US $485 per thousand board feet by the week ending October 3. By mid-October, lumber futures surpassed $620 per thousand board feet, with the Index climbing to $523 per thousand board feet, signaling a temporary market rally.

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However, the rally proved short-lived. By late October and into early November, prices began to retreat. The benchmark Western Spruce-Pine-Fir 2x4 #2&Btr KD (RL) segment fell 3% in the last week of October and declined an additional 9% in the first week of November. This downward momentum continued through mid-November.

Overall, Madison’s Lumber Prices Index recorded an 11% drop from its mid-October peak to mid-November. As of November 25, 2025, lumber futures had decreased 6.25% over the past month and were 8.87% lower than the same period last year, highlighting persistent market pressures amid high borrowing costs and softer housing demand.

The recent price fluctuations underscore the sensitivity of the North American lumber market to regulatory changes, macroeconomic conditions, and housing industry trends, suggesting continued volatility in the coming months.