New Study: U.S. Lumber Demand to See Steady Decline on Weak Housing
Rubber and Wood | 2026-04-20 10:39:58
The findings show that U.S. housing starts averaged 1.3 million units annually during the study period, peaking above 2 million units in 2005 before dropping sharply to nearly 0.54 million in 2010.
By Paul Ploumis
SEATTLE (Scrap Monster): A new study indicates that U.S. softwood lumber demand is set to decline steadily through 2070, primarily driven by weakening residential construction activity. The research finds that housing starts play a far more significant role in determining lumber demand than income levels or price fluctuations.
Analyzing quarterly data from 2000 to 2024, researchers identified a housing-starts elasticity of 0.593 for apparent softwood lumber consumption, compared with an income elasticity of 0.138 and a price elasticity of -0.212. The study was conducted by Craig Johnston, Jinggang Guo of Louisiana State University, and Jeffrey P. Prestemon of the U.S. Forest Service Southern Research Station.
The findings show that U.S. housing starts averaged 1.3 million units annually during the study period, peaking above 2 million units in 2005 before dropping sharply to nearly 0.54 million in 2010. By integrating housing activity into the Forest Resource Outlook Model, researchers found that demand projections shift from growth to a gradual long-term decline, aligning more closely with recent observed trends.
Across five modelled scenarios, U.S. softwood lumber consumption is projected to fall by 2070, with the lowest case reaching nearly 60 million cubic meters. The steepest regional declines are expected in the U.S. South, while the Pacific Coast is projected to remain comparatively resilient.
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POLL
What will most influence future U.S. lumber demand?
Frequently Asked Questions
- What is the main factor affecting U.S. softwood lumber demand?
Housing starts, with an elasticity of 0.593, have the strongest influence compared to income and price factors.
- What trend is projected for lumber demand by 2070?
Demand is expected to steadily decline under all modeled scenarios.
- Which regions will be most affected?
The U.S. South is projected to experience the steepest decline, while the Pacific Coast remains comparatively stable.
