China’s Housing Data Signals Deeper Cracks in Global Timber Trade

SEATTLE (Scrap Monster): China’s housing starts fell 17 per cent year-on-year in March to 53 million square metres, extending a slide that has halved the country’s softwood lumber imports from pre-pandemic peaks. That is according to National Bureau of Statistics data released on Friday, which shows cumulative January-to-March real estate investment of 1.77 trillion yuan, tracking 11.2 per cent below the same quarter of 2025.

Real estate development investment reached 810.8 billion yuan for March alone, climbing 2.1-fold from February’s Spring Festival base but still running 12 per cent below year-ago levels, whilst March commercial housing sales of 102 million square metres came in 8 per cent lower than a year earlier despite a 2.8-fold month-on-month rebound. The cumulative Q1 decline widened 0.1 percentage points from the January-February reading, with Morningstar’s Q1 2026 China Real Estate Outlook forecasting no demand rebound before 2027.

The annualised year-to-date pace of commercial housing sales is now running at 781 million square metres, 36 per cent below the five-year annual average of 1.225 billion square metres and 46 per cent below the 10-year average of 1.459 billion square metres. Commercial housing sales revenue for the quarter totalled 1.726 trillion yuan, down 16.7 per cent year-on-year, with residential sales revenue alone dropping 18.5 per cent.

 March new construction floor space climbed 2.6-fold from February to 53 million square metres, whilst cumulative January-to-March new starts of 103.73 million square metres ran 20.3 per cent below the same quarter of 2025. As Wood Central reported in February, the contraction has already cut 2025 softwood lumber imports to 14.6 million cubic metres — the third consecutive annual decline — with Russia and Belarus now supplying more than 78 per cent of arriving volumes.

Completed construction floor space reached 35 million square metres in March, rising 37 per cent from February but running 19 per cent lower than a year earlier, whilst cumulative Q1 completions came in 25 per cent below January-to-March 2025 at 97.89 million square metres. Floor area under development edged up 1.2 per cent to 5.417 billion square metres from February’s 5.354 billion, down 11.7 per cent year-on-year, with residential buildings under construction falling 12.1 per cent to 3.755 billion square metres.

The Economist last month warned that China’s property crisis could drag on into 2030, with new-home sales accounting for just 26 per cent of total property transactions in 2024 — down from more than half in 2022 — and continuing to fall in 2025. China Customs data puts 2025 softwood lumber imports at 14.6 million cubic metres, with Russia alone accounting for more than 70 per cent of the volumes arriving at Chinese ports.

 Courtesy: www.woodcentral.com.au