US scrap trends outlook: December 2025

SEATTLE (Scrap Monster): Ferrous scrap market sentiment remains broadly neutral, heading into December’s trade, with the Trend Indicator easing slightly to 47.9, pointing to a modest 1% decline in prices month-over-month. The reading marks the second consecutive month of flat-to-lower expectations, and reflects little directional conviction from participants.

Market sentiment split highlights diverging outlooks among participants

The Trend Indicator consensus stood at 65%, matching the long-term average and implying standard levels of disagreement in the market outlook. However, when looking at sentiment by market side the split is notable: while sellers continue to express mild optimism (Trend Indicator: 55.2), buyers lean bearish with a reading of just 38.5. Brokers remain squarely in neutral territory at 50. The disparity indicates a lack of unified momentum as market participants navigate steady but unspectacular fundamentals.

Muted market dynamics amid slight inventory decline

Inventory levels have dipped slightly to 44.9, suggesting below-average stock positions at mills. However, respondents overwhelmingly flagged “All Unchanged” as the prevailing market driver, underlining the absence of major supply or demand catalysts in the near term.

Survey responses reflected continued uncertainty, with mentions of mill outages, weak finished steel pricing, and stagnant economic activity. Nonetheless, no strong seasonal or macroeconomic push appears to be emerging to decisively move prices in either direction.

Courtesy: www.fastmarkets.com