JPMorgan tweaks gold price target as Fed risks return

SEATTLE (Scrap Monster): Gold prices seemed to be mounting a comeback, but JPMorgan just made the rally harder to trust.

Investors expected the shiny yellow metal to continue pushing higher into year's end, buoyed by rate-cut hopes, central-bank buying, and safe-haven demand.

Reuters reported that spot gold was up over 2% for the week, even as JPMorgan recently expected a much stronger year-end finish back in June.

Now, the bank sees things differently. 

The bank said demand from key gold-buying sectors may not be as strong as it had expected, warning that risks now lean to the downside if hot U.S. data forces the Federal Reserve back toward rate hikes.

Interestingly, Goldman Sachs, by contrast, still sees sovereign demand and emerging-market central-bank diversification keeping the long-term bull case alive, even after trimming its target. 

Nevertheless, JPMorgan's new call raises the sharper question for investors: Is the rebound durable or already capped?

What JPMorgan changed in its gold forecast

JPMorgan has just reset its gold price target in a big way.

As recently as June 9, according to Reuters, the bank expected gold to continue climbing into the year's end. 

Now, the bank sees gold reaching $4,300/oz in the third quarter and $4,500/oz in the fourth quarter, a path that is remarkably cautious compared with what investors had been working with.

The big reason was demand.

JPMorgan said buying from key sectors wouldn't be as strong as it expected, limiting how far gold could run in the near term. 

The gold trade leaned heavily on central-bank demand, physical buying, and expectations that the Federal Reserve would eventually ease policy.

Now that risk has shifted, according to the bank's analysts.

It says the risks to its forecast "skew to the downside" if hot U.S. data revives the possibility of earlier Fed rate hikes. 

It's important to note that JPMorgan isn't abandoning the long-term bull case. It still sees support from central-bank buying and physical demand in 2027. 

Nevertheless, the near-term message is clear: gold bulls just lost one of Wall Street's more aggressive year-end road maps.

Courtesy: www.finance.yahoo.com