By 
MONTREAL (Scrap Monster): China's Golden Week holiday could provide a seasonal lift to gold demand after high prices and weak consumer confidence weighed heavily on jewellery purchases during the first half of 2026, according to the World Gold Council.
The October 1-7 National Day holiday traditionally marks the beginning of China's peak gold-buying season, when consumer jewellery purchases tend to strengthen and retailers increase inventories ahead of year-end demand.
The timing is significant this year. Chinese gold jewellery demand fell sharply during the first half of 2026, but recent price stability could encourage some consumers who postponed purchases earlier in the year to return to the market.
SCRAPMONSTER EDGE
Chinese consumers are buying less gold by weight but spending more money on it. Jewellery demand fell 30% to 136 tonnes during the first half of 2026, yet spending increased 11% to approximately $21 billion. That divergence shows why Golden Week should be judged not only by tonnage, but also by consumer spending, product mix and whether buyers continue shifting toward lighter-weight jewellery.
Golden Week Starts China's Peak Gold-Buying Season
The World Gold Council said the National Day holiday typically marks the traditional start of China's strongest seasonal period for gold buying.
The holiday can support the market through several channels:
- higher consumer spending on gold jewellery;
- gift-related purchases;
- retailer inventory replenishment;
- stronger wholesale demand; and
- firmer local gold premiums when physical buying improves.
WGC said recent gold-price stability, combined with holiday spending, could release some demand that consumers had postponed earlier in the year.
China Jewellery Demand Fell 30% in First Half
Golden Week arrives after an unusually difficult first half for China's jewellery sector.
Mainland Chinese gold jewellery demand totaled 136 tonnes during January-June 2026, down 30% from the same period a year earlier.
Second-quarter demand fell to just 50 tonnes, down 28% year over year and the weakest Q2 performance since 2004.
| China Jewellery Market | 2026 | Market Read |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 Jewellery Demand | 85.2 tonnes | Down sharply as high prices limited affordability |
| Q2 Jewellery Demand | 50.0 tonnes | Weakest Q2 since 2004 |
| H1 Jewellery Demand | 136 tonnes | 30% below H1 2025 |
| H1 Consumer Spending | $21 billion | 11% higher despite lower tonnage |
High Gold Prices Changed What Chinese Consumers Buy
The weakness in jewellery demand does not mean Chinese consumers abandoned gold.
High prices have instead changed purchasing behaviour.
Consumers have increasingly shifted toward lighter-weight jewellery, exchanged older pieces for new products and, in some cases, redirected money toward lower-premium bars and coins.
That distinction matters heading into Golden Week because a recovery in store traffic may not necessarily produce the same tonnage growth seen during previous peak buying seasons.
Investment Gold Has Been Much Stronger Than Jewellery
China's physical gold market has become increasingly divided between weak jewellery demand and much stronger investment buying.
Chinese bar and coin demand reached 314 tonnes during the first half of 2026, the strongest first-half performance on record, according to WGC.
Safe-haven demand, subdued domestic bond yields, uncertainty around the economy and continued central-bank gold purchases have supported investment demand even as high prices discouraged heavier jewellery purchases.
CHINA GOLD DEMAND SPLIT
The Chinese market is not simply experiencing “weak gold demand.” Jewellery tonnage has fallen sharply, while investment demand has remained historically strong. Golden Week will therefore provide a useful test of whether recent price stability can bring discretionary jewellery buyers back into the market.
Recent Price Stability Could Unlock Deferred Purchases
The World Gold Council believes greater price stability could be important during the holiday period.
Consumers tend to delay discretionary jewellery purchases when gold prices are moving rapidly because the cost of a piece can change considerably over a short period.
A more stable price environment can make purchasing decisions easier, particularly around weddings, gifts and other planned spending.
WGC said this effect, combined with Golden Week spending, could provide seasonal support extending toward the end of the year.
Gold Price Fell 2% Last Week
The seasonal opportunity comes while the international gold market remains under pressure.
The LBMA Gold Price PM fell 2% last week to $4,261 per ounce, extending its 2026 decline to 2.4%.
Stronger U.S. economic data and hawkish Federal Reserve commentary reinforced expectations that interest rates could move higher, pushing Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar upward.
Those conditions tend to create a headwind for gold because the metal does not generate interest income.
Gold ETFs Post First Weekly Outflow Since Mid-July
Investor positioning also weakened during the week.
Global physically backed gold ETFs recorded their first weekly outflow since mid-July, according to WGC.
Futures investors reduced net long positions, while short-term options positioning also became more cautious.
The combination of higher yields, a stronger dollar and weaker investment flows contributed to the decline in bullion prices.
Could Lower Gold Prices Help Golden Week Sales?
A softer gold price can create two opposing effects in China.
Falling prices can discourage momentum-driven investment buying, but they can also improve affordability for jewellery consumers who previously postponed purchases.
The effect is particularly important during seasonal buying periods such as Golden Week, when gifting, weddings and discretionary spending can amplify demand.
Whether this year's holiday produces a meaningful rebound will depend on both price stability and consumer confidence.
Local Gold Premiums Will Be Important to Watch
One useful indicator will be the price premium for gold in China relative to international benchmarks.
Stronger physical buying can push Shanghai gold prices above comparable international prices as local demand competes for available metal.
The World Gold Council specifically identifies firmer local premiums as one of the patterns commonly associated with China's peak buying season.
A sustained rise in premiums during or immediately after Golden Week would provide a clearer indication that physical demand has strengthened.
U.S. Inflation and Jobs Data Could Move Gold During the Holiday
The international backdrop will also remain important while Chinese consumers enter the holiday period.
WGC identified several U.S. economic releases as potential catalysts for gold prices this week.
| Date | Indicator | Why It Matters for Gold |
|---|---|---|
| Sept. 30 | August PCE Inflation | Could shift expectations for future Federal Reserve rate moves |
| Oct. 2 | September Nonfarm Payrolls | Provides a fresh read on U.S. labour-market strength and rate expectations |
What to Watch During Golden Week
The holiday should provide an early indication of whether China's jewellery market is beginning to stabilize after an exceptionally weak first half.
Key signals include:
- jewellery-store traffic and sales;
- retailer restocking activity;
- Shanghai Gold Exchange withdrawals;
- local gold premiums;
- demand for lighter-weight jewellery;
- old-for-new exchange activity; and
- whether consumers continue favouring bars and coins over jewellery.
Market Read
Golden Week is unlikely to erase the challenges facing China's jewellery market, but it arrives at a potentially important point in the demand cycle.
High prices and weak consumer confidence pushed first-half jewellery demand down sharply, yet the increase in consumer spending shows that gold remains important to Chinese buyers.
The central question is therefore not simply whether demand rises during the holiday. It is how consumers return — through traditional jewellery, lighter-weight products, exchanges of old gold or investment products.
If price stability persists and local premiums strengthen, Golden Week could provide the first meaningful evidence that deferred jewellery demand is beginning to re-enter the market ahead of the year-end buying season.
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SOURCES & METHODOLOGY
Golden Week market commentary, gold-price performance and weekly investor-flow observations are based on the World Gold Council's September 28, 2026 Weekly Markets Monitor. Chinese jewellery and investment-demand figures are based on the World Gold Council's Q1 and Q2 2026 Gold Demand Trends reports. Holiday demand expectations are forward-looking and should not be interpreted as confirmed sales results.