By 
MONTREAL (Scrap Monster): Global copper mine production declined during the first seven months of 2026, even as refined production and consumption continued to grow, according to preliminary data from the International Copper Study Group (ICSG).
World mine output fell 1% year over year through July, with a 2% decline in concentrate production outweighing a 3.6% increase in solvent extraction-electrowinning, or SX-EW, output.
Production disruptions and weaker mine performance in Chile, Indonesia and the Democratic Republic of Congo were the main drag on global supply.
SCRAPMONSTER EDGE
The headline surplus has almost disappeared. The refined copper market showed a preliminary surplus of just 32,000 tonnes during January-July, down by 125,000 tonnes from the 157,000-tonne surplus recorded a year earlier. When estimated changes in Chinese bonded stocks are included, the balance shifts to a small 5,000-tonne deficit.
Global Copper Mine Production Falls
Although new and expanding projects added supply in several countries, those gains were not enough to offset sharp declines in some of the world's most important copper-producing regions.
| Country | Jan-Jul Change | Market Read |
|---|---|---|
| Chile | ▼ 7% | Lower output at El Teniente, Escondida and Spence |
| Indonesia — Concentrates | ▼ 29% | Major drag on global concentrate supply |
| DRC — Concentrates | ▼ 30% | Sharp reduction in concentrate production |
| Peru | ▲ 2.2% | Moderate production growth |
| Mongolia — Concentrates | ▲ 18% | Oyu Tolgoi underground ramp-up supports output |
Chile Output Falls 7%
Chile, the world's largest copper-producing country, recorded a 7% decline in mine output during the first seven months.
ICSG attributed the weakness mainly to reduced production at El Teniente, Escondida and Spence.
Chilean concentrate output fell 8.8%, while SX-EW production declined 0.5%.
The drop in Chile was particularly important because concentrate availability directly affects smelter feedstock and treatment conditions across the global copper supply chain.
Indonesia and DRC Concentrate Supply Drops Sharply
Indonesia recorded a 29% decline in concentrate production, while DRC concentrate output fell approximately 30%.
The declines added to tightening concentrate availability even as global refined copper production continued to grow.
Peru provided some offset, with mine production increasing 2.2%.
Mongolia recorded much stronger growth, with concentrate production rising 18% as underground production at the Oyu Tolgoi project continued to ramp up.
Refined Copper Production Rises 1.7%
Despite weaker mine output, global refined copper production increased approximately 1.7% during January-July.
Primary refined production rose 1%, while secondary refined production from scrap increased a much stronger 4.3%.
SECONDARY COPPER WATCH
Scrap-based refined copper is growing considerably faster than primary refined output. Secondary production increased 4.3% during the first seven months, compared with 1% growth in primary production and 1.7% growth in total refined output. That makes recycled feedstock an increasingly important contributor to refined copper supply as mine production remains constrained.
China and DRC Lead Refined Production Growth
China and the DRC accounted for much of the increase in refined production.
The two countries currently represent approximately 59% of global refined copper production and recorded a combined production increase of 4.8%.
Chinese refined output increased 4.6%, while DRC production rose approximately 6%.
Excluding China and the DRC, global refined copper production actually declined about 2.5%.
Global Copper Consumption Continues to Rise
World apparent refined copper usage increased approximately 2.4% during the first seven months of 2026.
Demand outside China rose approximately 1%, while Chinese apparent refined copper consumption increased 3.5%.
China continues to account for approximately 59% of global refined copper usage.
At the same time, China's net refined copper imports declined 10%, indicating that stronger domestic refined production helped meet a greater share of consumption.
Refined Copper Surplus Shrinks Sharply
The preliminary global refined copper balance showed a surplus of approximately 32,000 tonnes during January-July 2026.
That compares with a surplus of approximately 157,000 tonnes during the corresponding period of 2025.
The difference is significant because the market moved much closer to balance even as headline refined production continued to increase.
ICSG's alternative calculation, which adjusts for estimated changes in Chinese bonded warehouse inventories, points to a small global refined copper deficit of approximately 5,000 tonnes.
Why the Mine-Refinery Gap Matters
The latest data highlight an important split in the copper supply chain.
Mine production is declining, particularly for concentrates, while refined production is still rising because of stronger refinery output in China and the DRC and increased use of secondary copper feedstock.
That means refined metal availability can remain relatively stable for a period even while the upstream concentrate market becomes tighter.
For smelters, recyclers and copper processors, sustained weakness in mined concentrate supply increases the importance of scrap and other secondary feedstocks.
2026 Copper Supply Forecast Already Revised Lower
ICSG had already reduced its full-year mine production outlook earlier this year.
In April, the group forecast global copper mine production growth of 1.6% in 2026, down from its earlier expectation of 2.3%, citing downward revisions for Chile, the DRC and Indonesia.
The January-July decline shows that actual mine performance remains well behind that full-year growth forecast so far.
Market Read
The most important signal from the July data is not simply the 1% decline in mine production. It is the widening gap between weak upstream supply and continued growth in refined copper consumption.
The refined market is technically close to balance on the headline measure and slightly in deficit after adjusting for estimated Chinese bonded stocks.
At the same time, secondary copper production from scrap is expanding faster than primary refined output, increasing the role of recycled material in balancing the market.
For scrap processors and copper consumers, the combination of constrained mine supply, rising usage and stronger secondary production keeps recycled copper strategically important to the global supply chain.
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SOURCES & METHODOLOGY
Production, usage and market-balance figures are based on preliminary January-July 2026 data released by the International Copper Study Group in its September 2026 Copper Bulletin. The adjusted market balance reflects ICSG estimates for changes in Chinese bonded and unreported stocks.
