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JPMorgan Sees U.S. Copper Production More Than Doubling as Mining Investment Expands
JPMorgan estimates that planned U.S. copper mining projects and expansions could add approximately 1.3 million tonnes of annual production capacity, potentially more than doubling domestic output. However, much of the additional supply is unlikely to become available before 2030.
Key Points
- Growth potential: Approximately 1.3 million tonnes of additional annual U.S. copper mine capacity.
- Global ranking: U.S. ranks third for potential production growth, behind Chile and Argentina.
- Resolution Copper: Could account for nearly half the additional capacity.
- Freeport-McMoRan: Brownfield expansions could add more than 250,000 tonnes annually.
- Investment: U.S. projects require an estimated $28,000 per tonne of annual production capacity.
SEATTLE (Scrap Monster): JPMorgan Chase sees substantial potential for a revival in U.S. copper mining, with planned projects and mine expansions capable of adding approximately 1.3 million tonnes of annual production capacity.
The increase could more than double current domestic mine output, which has declined by roughly half over the past three decades to approximately one million tonnes annually.
JPMorgan ranks the United States third globally for potential copper supply growth, behind Chile and Argentina. However, most new production is expected to emerge only after 2030.
ScrapMonster Edge: More Copper Mines Won't Automatically Mean U.S. Self-Sufficiency
JPMorgan's projected 1.3 million tonnes of additional annual capacity could transform domestic mine production. But expanding extraction is only part of the copper supply chain.
The United States also needs sufficient smelting and refining capacity to process additional concentrates domestically. Without corresponding processing investment, increased mine output could still depend on overseas facilities before returning as refined metal.
Industry takeaway: The key measure of U.S. copper supply security will be how much additional mine production can move through domestic processing facilities. For copper recyclers and industrial buyers, mine expansion and secondary copper recovery remain separate but complementary sources of supply.
Resolution Copper Leads Potential U.S. Mine Expansion
Arizona's proposed Resolution Copper project, a joint venture between Rio Tinto and BHP, represents nearly half of JPMorgan's estimated additional U.S. copper mining capacity.
At full production, the project could meet up to 25% of U.S. copper demand, according to developer estimates.
However, Resolution remains subject to additional permitting, technical studies and investment decisions, with production unlikely to begin before 2030.
Freeport-McMoRan Offers Nearer-Term Growth Potential
JPMorgan identifies Freeport-McMoRan as a major source of potential medium-term growth through expansions at existing U.S. mines.
The bank estimates these brownfield projects could add more than 250,000 tonnes of annual copper production.
Unlike large new mines, brownfield expansions can use some existing infrastructure, although development costs and project schedules remain important considerations.
High Capital Costs and Permitting Remain Obstacles
JPMorgan estimates U.S. copper mining projects require approximately $28,000 in capital investment for each tonne of annual production capacity, compared with a global average of around $26,000.
Long permitting procedures, substantial construction costs and limited domestic processing infrastructure continue to constrain development.
Regulatory initiatives, including the FAST-41 framework, may help accelerate project reviews, while in-situ recovery technologies and the potential reopening of existing mines offer additional opportunities.
Despite the sizable project pipeline, the bank's estimates represent potential capacity rather than committed production. Actual additions will depend on permitting, investment approvals, construction and successful commissioning.
Source: JPMorgan copper industry analysis, as reported November 3–4, 2026. Capacity estimates and development projections are forward-looking.
