ICSG Flags Global Copper Surplus in 2025

World refined copper production rose 4.2%, driven by China and the DRC, while ex-China output declined.

SEATTLE (Scrap Monster): The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) has released preliminary November copper supply and demand data in its January 2026 Copper Bulletin, showing moderate growth in global production alongside a refined copper surplus.

According to the report, world copper mine production increased by around 1% during the first eleven months of 2025, supported by project ramp-ups and improved output at several operations, despite disruptions at major mines.

Chile’s mine production declined 1.3%, as gains at Escondida and Centinela were offset by losses at Collahuasi and Quebrada Blanca. Peru recorded a 2.4% increase, while the Democratic Republic of Congo saw output rise 6.5%, aided by Kamoa and Tenke/Kisanfu expansions. Mongolian concentrate production surged 34% due to the Oyu Tolgoy underground ramp-up, while Indonesian output fell sharply following maintenance and operational incidents at Grasberg.

World refined copper production rose 4.2%, driven by China and the DRC, while ex-China output declined. Apparent refined copper usage increased about 4%, led by China, which now accounts for 58% of global demand. ICSG estimates an apparent refined copper surplus of 206,000 tonnes for the first eleven months of 2025.

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