BIR Malaga 2026 to Put Copper Supply, Demand and Scrap Availability in Focus

Copper supply, demand and future material availability will take center stage at the BIR World Recycling Convention & Exhibition in Málaga later this month, as recyclers confront tighter raw-material markets, changing trade rules and growing competition for secondary copper.

By Paul Ploumis
Published October 7, 2026

SEATTLE (Scrap Monster): Copper will be one of the central market topics at the upcoming Bureau of International Recycling World Recycling Convention & Exhibition Malaga 2026, with industry leaders preparing to examine how supply constraints, changing demand and trade policy could reshape the availability of recycled copper.

BIR has titled the Non-Ferrous Metals Division session “Copper in focus: supply, demand and future availability.”

The plenary is scheduled for Monday, October 26 from 14:00 to 15:00 at the FYCMA Trade Fairs and Congress Centre in Málaga, Spain.

The wider convention runs from October 25 through October 27 and will bring together recyclers, traders, processors, consumers, brokers, equipment suppliers and other participants from the global recycling industry.

Trade Rules Could Reshape Recycled Copper Flows

The session is expected to focus heavily on the effect of trade policy on recycled copper and other secondary raw materials.

Governments in several regions are reviewing policies intended to retain more recyclable metals for domestic manufacturing as concerns grow over critical-material availability.

For recyclers, those measures can have significant consequences.

Export restrictions may increase the amount of material available to domestic consumers, but they can also reduce access to international buyers, alter regional pricing and disrupt established trading routes.

BIR has repeatedly argued that functioning international markets are important to recycling economics because recovered material needs access to buyers capable of processing and consuming it.

EU Waste Export Rules Add Urgency to Málaga Discussion

The European policy backdrop makes the BIR discussion particularly timely.

Under the revised EU Waste Shipment Regulation, new restrictions on exports of non-hazardous waste to non-OECD countries are scheduled to take effect from May 21, 2027.

Exports covered by the new regime will generally be prohibited unless the destination country and specific waste stream have been approved by the European Commission.

In September, the Commission published a draft list following applications from 32 non-OECD countries and territories.

BIR said 24 of those applicants had sought authorization to receive ferrous or non-ferrous metal waste, but under the draft proposal many important current destinations would no longer be authorized to receive certain metal streams.

BIR has warned that restricting access to established international markets could disrupt recycled-material flows and weaken recycling economics rather than automatically strengthening European circularity.

Export Controls Are Emerging Beyond Europe

The pressure to retain recyclable metals is not limited to the European Union.

Dubai Customs introduced a temporary export ban this year covering several industrial scrap categories, including copper waste and scrap under HS code 74040000.

The measure took effect June 10 and was initially scheduled through October 8, with possible exemptions for certain existing contracts or shipments considered to be in the public interest.

Such measures illustrate the broader policy trend facing metal recyclers: scrap is increasingly being treated as a strategic industrial feedstock rather than simply a globally traded waste commodity.

Frank Pothen to Examine European Copper Fundamentals

Prof. Dr. Frank Pothen of Ernst-Abbe University of Applied Sciences Jena in Germany will provide an analysis of European copper fundamentals during the session.

Pothen is Professor of Economics at the university and specializes in resource economics, global value chains, international economic relations and the transformation of energy-intensive industries.

His research has also examined recycled-material markets and how trade and industrial policy can affect the availability of secondary raw materials.

That perspective is particularly relevant as European policymakers attempt to increase domestic recycling while also reducing dependence on imported primary raw materials.

ACIN CEO to Bring Recycler's View of Material Availability

Joan Campmajo, CEO of Spain-based ACIN Recycling Metals, will provide the industry perspective.

ACIN processes and trades ferrous and non-ferrous recycled metals and has invested in advanced sorting and recovery technologies, including copper-processing capacity.

Campmajo is expected to discuss the practical relationship between raw-material availability and consumption requirements from the standpoint of a recycling business operating in European and international markets.

The combination of economic analysis and hands-on recycling experience should allow the session to address both the theoretical copper balance and the realities recyclers face when sourcing, processing and selling material.

Current Copper Forecast Shows Only a Small 2026 Surplus

The BIR session comes against an unusually complex global copper backdrop.

The International Copper Study Group's current 2026–2027 forecast expects world refined copper production to increase only 0.4% in 2026.

Growth is being constrained by limited copper-concentrate availability even as new refining capacity continues to come online.

Global refined copper usage is forecast to rise approximately 1.6% in 2026.

On those assumptions, ICSG currently projects a refined copper surplus of only about 96,000 metric tons this year.

ICSG has cautioned that actual market balances can differ substantially from forecasts because of mine disruptions, trade-flow changes and shifts in reported and unreported inventories, particularly in China.

Recycled Copper Supply Expected to Grow

Recycling is expected to play an increasingly important role in closing the copper supply gap.

ICSG forecasts secondary refined copper production from scrap to increase approximately 5.7% in 2027, faster than primary refined production.

The forecast underscores why access to recycled copper is becoming strategically important to manufacturers and policymakers.

Copper can be recycled repeatedly without losing the properties that make it valuable for electrical conductivity, construction, transportation and industrial applications.

However, the amount of secondary metal available in any particular region depends on collection rates, product lifetimes, processing capacity, international trade and prices strong enough to encourage recovery.

Copper Demand Remains Tied to Electrification and Digital Infrastructure

Longer-term copper demand continues to be supported by electrification, power-grid expansion, renewable-energy systems, electric vehicles and growing digital infrastructure.

Data centers have become an increasingly important part of that demand discussion as artificial-intelligence infrastructure drives investment in electricity generation, transmission and computing capacity.

ICSG expects energy transition, urbanization and digitalization to remain structural sources of copper consumption even though near-term demand growth has moderated.

This combination of long-term demand growth and constrained mine-development timelines is one reason secondary copper is receiving greater attention.

Panel to Examine Supply-Demand Relationship

Following the presentations from Pothen and Campmajo, the BIR session will move into a panel discussion examining the evolving relationship between copper supply and demand.

The discussion is expected to address the implications for recycling companies as competition grows for secondary raw materials.

Among the central questions facing the industry are:

• how much recycled copper will be available as demand increases;
• whether Europe can retain more material without weakening collection incentives;
• how export restrictions could affect regional prices;
• where sufficient processing capacity exists to consume recovered material; and
• how recyclers should prepare for increasingly strategic treatment of copper scrap.

Paul Coyte to Chair Non-Ferrous Session

The session will be chaired by Paul Coyte, President of BIR's Non-Ferrous Metals Division and Managing Director of New Zealand-based Hayes Metals.

Coyte and the Non-Ferrous Metals Division have repeatedly emphasized the importance of open markets and viable international trade for the global recycling industry.

The Division's earlier 2026 discussions also focused heavily on trade policy, geopolitical uncertainty and government efforts to keep recycled non-ferrous metals within domestic markets.

Copper now brings those issues together in one of the recycling industry's most strategically important commodities.

ICSG Forecast Update Could Arrive Before BIR Meeting

One additional market event could make the Málaga discussion even more timely.

The International Copper Study Group is scheduled to hold its next meetings in Lisbon on October 13.

The organization's current 2026–2027 supply-demand outlook dates from April.

If ICSG updates its market balance following the October meeting, BIR delegates could arrive in Málaga with a fresh global copper forecast just two weeks later.

That could provide a useful reference point for comparing the refined-metal outlook with what recyclers are actually seeing in secondary raw-material markets.

Market Read

BIR's decision to put copper at the center of its non-ferrous session reflects how quickly recycled copper has moved from a conventional scrap commodity into the wider critical-materials debate.

Manufacturers want more secondary metal. Governments want to secure domestic supply. Export regulations are becoming stricter, and recyclers still need competitive outlets capable of paying enough for material to support collection and processing.

At the same time, the global copper balance remains difficult to read.

ICSG currently forecasts a refined surplus, but concentrate availability remains constrained and secondary production is becoming an increasingly important source of supply.

For recyclers, the practical question in Málaga will therefore be less about whether global copper production exceeds consumption by a few hundred thousand tonnes.

The bigger issue is whether sufficient recycled copper will be available in the right markets, at viable prices, and under trade rules that allow material to reach the processors and consumers prepared to use it.

The BIR Non-Ferrous Metals Division session is scheduled for 14:00–15:00 on Monday, October 26, 2026 at the FYCMA Trade Fairs and Congress Centre in Málaga.