Global Copper Surplus Widens in Q1 Despite Flat Mine Output
Copper | 2026-05-25 05:48:58
Indonesia’s concentrate output plunged 42% due to constrained operations at the Grasberg Mine.
By Paul Ploumis
SEATTLE (Scrap Monster): According to preliminary data released by the International Copper Study Group in its May 2026 Copper Bulletin, the global copper market recorded a significant surplus in Q1 2026. The refined production growth outpaced demand during this period.
World copper mine production remained largely unchanged during the quarter. A 1.1% decline in concentrate output was offset by a 3.3% rise in solvent extraction-electrowinning (SX-EW) production. The overall growth was impacted by major production declines in Chile, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Indonesia.
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Indonesia’s concentrate output plunged 42% due to constrained operations at the Grasberg Mine. Chile’s mine output fell 5.8%, while DRC concentrate production dropped 36% due to disruptions at the Kamoa mine. Peru posted a 3.3% increase, while Mongolia recorded a strong 36% jump driven by ramp-up at the Oyu Tolgoi underground project.
Refined copper production rose 4.5%, supported by strong gains in China and DRC, which together account for nearly 60% of global output. China’s production climbed 8.8%, while India surged 25% due to improved refinery utilization and the Adani refinery ramp-up.
The refined copper balance showed a surplus of 396,000 tonnes in Q1 2026, sharply higher than the 135,000-tonne surplus recorded in the same period of 2025.
POLL
What was the main driver of the global copper surplus in Q1 2026?
Frequently Asked Questions
- How large was the global copper surplus in Q1 2026?
The refined copper market recorded a 396,000-tonne surplus.
- Why did mine production remain largely flat?
Major declines in Chile, Indonesia, and the DRC offset production gains in Peru and Mongolia.
- Which country recorded the strongest refined copper production growth?
India, with production surging 25% due to refinery utilization improvements and Adani’s ramp-up.
