SEATTLE (Scrap Monster): ING commodities strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey highlight a pronounced weakening in global aluminum production in April, as geopolitical disruptions in the Gulf region weighed heavily on supply. They attribute much of the decline to output cuts linked to the Iran conflict, which have significantly affected one of the key producing hubs.

Global Output Trends

“Data from the International Aluminium Institute (IAI) show that the average daily global primary aluminium output declined to 197.4kt in April.”

“Total monthly production for the metal fell 5.3% month-on-month (-2% year-on-year) to 5.92mt last month, reflecting reduced output across major producing regions.”

China: Resilient Output Despite Monthly Dip

“China’s aluminium production fell 3% month-on-month to 3.7mt in April, while year-to-date output stood at 14.7mt, up 1.6% year-on-year.”

“Chinese smelters continue to benefit from alumina supply diversion away from the Middle East, which could support near-term production growth and mitigate regional supply disruptions linked to geopolitical tensions.”

Gulf Region: Sharp Contraction Tied to Conflict

“Gulf region production dropped more sharply, down 29% MoM and 34.6% YoY to 330kt, its lowest level since November 2013.”

The strategists connect this steep decline in Gulf output to disruptions associated with the Iran conflict, which has emerged as a major factor constraining regional aluminum supply and weighing on global production metrics.