Global Copper Market Records Surplus in First Nine Months of 2025, ICSG Reports
Copper | 2025-11-24 12:35:08
Chile, the world's top producer of copper mines, saw its production at essentially unchanged levels between January and September of 2025.
By Paul Ploumis
SEATTLE (Scrap Monster): The global copper market shifted into surplus territory during the first three quarters of 2025, according to new preliminary data released in the November 2025 Copper Bulletin by the International Copper Study Group (ICSG). The organization reported that the refined copper market posted an estimated surplus of about 94,000 tonnes from January through September 2025.
ICSG figures indicate modest improvement in global copper mine output, which grew by around 2% year-over-year in the first nine months of 2025. Production from solvent extraction-electrowinning (SX-EW) operations increased 3.5%, while copper concentrate output rose by roughly 1.5%.
Performance varied significantly across major producing countries. Chile, the world’s largest copper mining nation, reported virtually unchanged production levels during the period. Peru posted a 2.87% increase in mine output compared to the same period in 2024, while Indonesia recorded a steep 35% decline—largely attributed to reduced output at the Batu Hijau mine. Meanwhile, production in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) strengthened, rising by about 8%.
Refined copper production also expanded globally, increasing 4.3% during January–September 2025. Primary refined output advanced 4%, and secondary (recycled) production climbed 5.5%, reflecting stronger utilization of scrap-based supply.
Demand also grew during the period: global apparent use of refined copper rose 5.5%, driven primarily by consumption in China, which surged 8.5% year-over-year. Consumption in the rest of the world experienced a more modest 1.6% increase over the same nine-month timeframe, according to preliminary estimates.
The rising surplus suggests a more balanced market after recent tightness, although regional production disruptions and shifting demand forecasts may influence pricing trends in the coming months.
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Will the copper surplus continue into 2026?
Frequently Asked Questions
- Which major producers saw significant production changes?
Peru increased output by 2.87%, the DRC by 8%, while Indonesia dropped 35% due to reduced production at Batu Hijau. Chile’s levels remained flat.
- What happened to refined copper supply and demand?
Refined copper production expanded 4.3%, and global apparent usage rose 5.5%.
- Which country drove most of the demand growth?
China, where refined copper consumption jumped 8.5%.
