Copper Prices Face Downside Risk Amid Middle East Conflict, Goldman Sachs Warns
Copper | 2026-04-08 05:48:36
The escalation of tensions involving Iran alone triggered a roughly 7% decline, bringing prices closer to the $12,000 mark.
By Paul Ploumis
SEATTLE (Scrap Monster): Copper prices could face further downside pressure if the ongoing Middle East conflict continues to disrupt global supply chains, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, according to analysts at Goldman Sachs.
In a recent note, analysts led by Aurelia Waltham cautioned that prolonged disruption in strait flows could keep energy prices elevated, dampening global economic growth and weakening demand for industrial metals like copper. The metal, widely used across construction, manufacturing, and energy sectors, has already come under pressure in recent weeks.
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After a strong rally earlier in 2026 that pushed prices above $14,500 per ton, copper has reversed course and is now down about 2.5% for the year. The escalation of tensions involving Iran alone triggered a roughly 7% decline, bringing prices closer to the $12,000 mark.
While Bloomberg Intelligence projected that a prolonged disruption could push prices below $10,000 per ton, Goldman Sachs expects a more moderate decline. Still, the bank has lowered its 2026 base-case forecast to $12,650 per ton from $12,850.
Analysts noted that copper remains vulnerable, particularly as current prices exceed its estimated fair value of around $11,100 per ton.
POLL
What is your outlook for copper prices amid ongoing geopolitical tensions?
Frequently Asked Questions
- Why are copper prices under pressure?
Ongoing geopolitical tensions are disrupting supply chains and raising energy costs, which dampens global economic growth and reduces demand for copper.
- What is Goldman Sachs’ updated forecast?
The bank lowered its 2026 base-case estimate to $12,650 per ton from $12,850.
- Could prices fall further?
Yes, analysts warn prolonged disruption could push prices lower, with some projections suggesting levels below $10,000 per ton.
