Aluminium supply deficit to rise by more than 50% in 2014, says Barclays

WASHINGTON (Scrap Monster): The multinational banking and financial services firm Barclays has projected that supply deficit in aluminium market to reach 1.1 million mt in 2014, almost 51% higher when compared with the 2013 deficit of 726,000 mt.

In its latest released Metals Magnifier report, Barclays states that the Chinese market is expected to report surplus of 250,000 mt aluminium, while the rest of the world will see a supply deficit of 1.3 million mt this year. Barclays projects 1.1 million mt deficit in 2015 as well.

According to Barclays, the LME Aluminium cash price will average at $1,850 per mt during 2014. The average prices will rise on a quarterly basis. The projected average price during Q1 is $1,750 per mt. The average prices will increase to $1,850 per mt during Q2-Q3. In Q4, the average prices are expected to touch $1,950 per mt.

With reference to data, the global aluminium consumption during 2013 witnessed a rise of nearly 8% to 50.357 million mt. At the same time, the global production rose only 4.5% year-on-year to 49.631 million mt. China accounted for nearly half of the global aluminium production, producing 22.972 million mt. The Chinese production in 2013 fell just short of the country’s domestic demand.