worldsteel Short Range Outlook: Global Steel Demand Flat in 2026, Up 1.7% in 2027
Steel News | 2026-10-13 05:39:15
The latest outlook represents a downgrade from the April forecast, which anticipated growth of 2.2% next year.
By Paul Ploumis
SEATTLE (Scrap Monster): Global steel demand is expected to remain stagnant in 2026 before returning to moderate growth next year, according to the World Steel Association's (worldsteel) October 2026 Short Range Outlook.
The association forecasts worldwide steel demand at 1,722 million tonnes (Mt) in 2026, broadly unchanged from 2025. The demand is projected to rise 1.7% to 1,752 Mt in 2027. The latest outlook represents a downgrade from the April forecast, which anticipated growth of 2.2% next year.
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India is expected to record the strongest steel demand growth. Steel demand is forecast to increase 7.9% to 172.4 Mt in 2026 and another 8% to 186.2 Mt in 2027. China's steel demand is projected to decline 2% in 2026 and a further 1% in 2027.
Developing economies excluding China are expected to record demand growth of 1.9% this year and 5.1% next year. The Gulf region faces a sharper near-term setback, with steel consumption forecast to fall approximately 11% in 2026 before rebounding 11.3% in 2027.
In developed markets, demand is projected to grow 1% in 2026 and 2.2% in 2027. European Union consumption is expected to contract 0.3% this year before recovering 3.1% next year. U.S. demand is forecast to rise 2% in 2026 and approximately 1.5% in 2027, the report noted.
POLL
Which country is expected to record the strongest steel demand growth in 2026 and 2027, according to worldsteel?
Frequently Asked Questions
- What is the World Steel Association’s forecast for global steel demand in 2026 and 2027?
Worldsteel forecasts global steel demand to remain broadly unchanged at 1,722 million tonnes in 2026. Demand is expected to increase by 1.7% to 1,752 million tonnes in 2027, indicating a moderate recovery after a period of stagnation. The 2027 projection is lower than the 2.2% growth forecast in April.
- Which country is expected to record the strongest steel demand growth?
India is projected to lead steel demand growth, with consumption increasing 7.9% to 172.4 million tonnes in 2026 and a further 8% to 186.2 million tonnes in 2027. Continued expansion in the Indian market contrasts with China, where demand is forecast to decline in both years.
- What is the outlook for China’s steel demand?
China’s steel demand is forecast to decline by 2% in 2026 and another 1% in 2027. The continued contraction contrasts with the expected growth in India and several other developing economies, contributing to the uneven performance of the global steel market.
