Steel Price Surge: Not India Or China, This Nation Steals The Show

SEATTLE (Scrap Monster): Global steel prices climbed across most major markets in April and early May. But the strongest momentum did not come from China or India.

It came from Brazil.

A latest report by Goldman Sachs -- Global Steel: The Steel Market Barometer - May Update -- shows Brazil delivering the sharpest gains in steel prices, even as China's output stayed under pressure and India recorded one of the fastest production growth rates globally.

HRC Prices Rise Across Regions, Brazil On Top

Average hot rolled coil (HRC) prices increased in nearly all major regions in April:

• Brazil: +10% month-on-month

• Japan: +6.5%

• China: +2.9%

On a year-to-date basis, the gap is even wider:

• Brazil: +21% (strongest in sample)

• US: +15%

• Other regions: +6% to +13%

Brazil also topped gains in long steel.

Rebar (steel rod) prices in April:

• Brazil: +12% MoM

• Europe: +6.9%

• Black Sea region: +6.1%

China's Supply Discipline Delays Show Up In Output

On the supply side, China's steel production continued to shrink. Steel output in the first two weeks of May fell 3.2 per cent  year-on-year.

Goldman Sachs noted: "While the anti-involution effort and long-term capacity cut plan for the Chinese steel sector remain intact, we see delayed execution in 2026E in terms of both capacity and production discipline."

This means reforms are planned, but not yet fully implemented. Excess supply pressures remain.

India Among Fastest-Growing Steel Producers

While prices surged globally, India stood out on production growth.

Crude steel output growth:

• March: +11% YoY

• Year-to-date: +10%

• February: +7%

India remains one of the quickest expanding steel markets in the world within this global uptrend.

Mixed Trends Across Other Major Producers

• Europe: Crude steel output rose 16% MoM in March, but remained down 3% YoY and YTD.

• US: Average weekly steel production rose 3% MoM in April. Capacity utilisation averaged 79.6%.

China's Demand Picture Is Uneven

Despite weakness in the property sector, parts of China's steel demand remain firm.

• Infrastructure investment (excluding water and power): +8.9% YoY in Q1 2026

• Manufacturing activity improved in March

• Construction activity weakened

This shows uneven demand across steel-consuming sectors.

What Goldman Sachs Expects Next

Goldman Sachs expects steel prices to remain broadly stable through 2026 across major markets. However, US steel prices are expected to stay stronger than those in Europe, China and Brazil.

Courtesy: www.ndtv.com