EU Steel Demand to Recover in 2026 as CBAM and Trade Curbs Lift Prices
Steel News | 2025-12-17 04:18:26
Speaking to Platts, Marcegaglia said he remains broadly optimistic about annual steel consumption growth, particularly in the second half of the year as the impact of inventory destocking fades.
By Paul Ploumis
SEATTLE (Scrap Monster): European steel demand is expected to show a moderate recovery in 2026, with prices already responding to tighter trade policies and the upcoming rollout of the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), according to Antonio Marcegaglia, CEO of Italy’s Marcegaglia Group.
Speaking to Platts, Marcegaglia said he remains broadly optimistic about annual steel consumption growth, particularly in the second half of the year as the impact of inventory destocking fades. Infrastructure investment, especially in Germany and the wider engineering sector, is expected to improve, while automotive steel demand is likely to remain stable rather than decline.
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Marcegaglia noted that supply dynamics could play a more decisive role than demand. He expects EU steel imports to fall 35–40% year on year in 2026 as new protective trade measures replace existing safeguards and CBAM-related uncertainty weighs on supply.
Key Market Drivers
· Stronger EU trade measures supporting prices
· CBAM implementation in 2026 adding cost pressure
· Potential €40–100 per tonne price impact, equal to about 8–10% of production costs
· Lower import volumes tightening regional supply
POLL
Which sector is likely to support steel demand growth?
Frequently Asked Questions
- What is the expected trend for European steel demand in 2026?
Demand is expected to show a moderate recovery, particularly in the second half of the year, as inventory destocking effects fade and infrastructure and automotive sectors support consumption.
- How are EU trade policies influencing steel prices?
Tighter trade measures and the upcoming Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) are supporting prices by adding cost pressure and reducing import volumes.
- What impact is CBAM expected to have on steel production costs?
CBAM implementation could raise costs by €40–100 per tonne, roughly 8–10% of production costs.
