China crude steel output hits seven-year low in 2025 despite record exports

SEATTLE (Scrap Monster): China's crude steel output in 2025 fell below 1 billion metric tons to a seven-year low as a protracted downturn in the property market hurt demand, although steel exports rose to record levels.

The world's largest steel producer manufactured 960.81 million tons of the metal in 2025, the lowest level since 2018, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed on Monday. That marked a decline of 4.4% from 2024.

Chinese steelmakers have struggled for profitability since the second half of 2022 owing to the persistent property market slowdown.

However, analysts said profitability improved in 2025, in part because producers shifted to flat steel products, such as hot-rolled coil, which are in higher demand.

China's steel exports, which data last week showed rose to a record of just over 119 million tons last year, are mainly composed of flat steel.

As a result, the share of steel reinforcing bars - used in construction - dropped to 13% of total steel production in the first 11 months of 2025 from 23% over the same period in 2019, according to Reuters calculations based on official data. China has not yet released a breakdown of such output for the full year.

Data from consultancy Mysteel showed an average of 54% of steelmakers were profitable last year, versus 36% in 2024.

Analysts expect crude steel output to decline further in 2026, though at a slower pace.

Ge Xin, deputy director at consultancy Lange Steel, forecast a roughly 3% fall in crude steel output for 2026.

Beijing said in late December that it would continue to regulate crude steel output and prohibit the addition of illegal new capacity from 2026 to 2030, without providing further details. Beijing put an end to growth in crude steel output from 2021 as part of efforts to limit carbon emissions.

For December, output fell 2.4% from the month before to the lowest since December 2023 at 68.18 million tons, marking a seventh consecutive monthly decline as some steel mills conducted annual equipment maintenance during a period of typically sluggish demand.

December output fell 10.3% from the same month in 2024.

Courtesy: www.reuters.com