CBAM Hits Ukrainian Steel Exports, Long Products Slide
Steel News | 2026-04-01 05:36:34
In contrast, long products such as rebar and square billet face immediate pressure.
By Paul Ploumis
SEATTLE (Scrap Monster): Ukrainian steel exports to the EU are set for a mixed trajectory under the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), with flat products showing resilience while long products face steep declines, according to a study by GMK Center.
Hot-rolled coil (HRC) exports remain relatively competitive despite a carbon intensity of 2.3 tCO2, which results in CBAM costs €10–15 per tonne higher than rivals. A significant €110/t rise in EU HRC prices since October has helped Ukrainian producers pass on these additional costs, cushioning near-term impacts. However, risks are expected to intensify by 2029–2030 as stricter CBAM rules and increased availability of low-carbon steel reshape the market.
ALSO READ:
EU Steel Market Eyes 2026 Recovery on CBAM, Trade Measures
JSW Steel Readies for CBAM Era with 4MT Green Steel Unit
In contrast, long products such as rebar and square billet face immediate pressure. With carbon intensity around 2.1 tCO2, Ukrainian exporters incur CBAM costs of about €61/t, far above €20/t for electric arc furnace-based competitors. Weak pricing conditions in early 2026 are unlikely to offset these costs, with exports already down 64% year-on-year in the first two months. Annual exports could drop 55% in 2026 and potentially cease entirely by 2029.
Meanwhile, pig iron may retain competitiveness in the medium term, although rising hot-briquetted iron supply could eventually displace it in the EU market.
POLL
Which Ukrainian steel segment will be most impacted by CBAM?
Frequently Asked Questions
- Why are Ukrainian HRC exports holding up under CBAM?
Higher EU steel prices, including a €110/t rise since October, have allowed producers to pass on CBAM-related costs, maintaining competitiveness in the short term.
- Why are long products more affected than flat steel?
Long products face significantly higher CBAM costs (~€61/t) compared to competitors (~€20/t), making them less competitive in a weak pricing environment.
- What is the outlook for Ukrainian long product exports?
Exports could decline by 55% in 2026 and may completely cease by 2029 due to sustained cost disadvantages.
