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Canadian Lumber Production Falls 6.7% as July Shipments Drop
Canadian sawmills produced 3.546 million cubic metres of lumber in July 2026, down 6.7% from a year earlier, while shipments fell 7.8% to 3.729 million cubic metres. Both measures also declined sharply from June, according to Statistics Canada.
By Paul Ploumis
Published October 7, 2026
Courtesy: Fordaq
Summary Points
- Production: Canadian sawmills produced 3.5464 million m³ of lumber in July.
- Month over month: Production declined 8.6% from June.
- Year over year: Production was 6.7% below July 2025.
- Shipments: Mills shipped 3.7289 million m³, down 10.3% from June and 7.8% year over year.
- Production vs. shipments: Shipments exceeded production by approximately 182,500 m³.
- Data caution: Statistics Canada says the series is not seasonally adjusted and revised historical data from January 2025 through June 2026.
SEATTLE (Scrap Monster): Canadian lumber production and shipments both moved lower in July 2026, with sawmill activity declining from the previous month as well as from year-earlier levels.
Canadian sawmills produced 3.5464 million cubic metres of lumber during July, according to Statistics Canada's latest monthly Sawmills report.
Production fell 8.6% from June and was 6.7% below July 2025.
Shipments weakened even more sharply. Mills shipped 3.7289 million cubic metres, down 10.3% month over month and 7.8% year over year.
| Canadian Sawmill Measure | July 2026 | vs. June | vs. July 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lumber Production | 3.5464M m³ | ▼ 8.6% | ▼ 6.7% |
| Lumber Shipments | 3.7289M m³ | ▼ 10.3% | ▼ 7.8% |
SCRAPMONSTER EDGE
The year-over-year comparison matters more than the monthly decline alone. Statistics Canada's sawmill series is not seasonally adjusted, so July's 8.6% month-to-month production decline can include seasonal effects. The 6.7% drop from July 2025 confirms that output was also materially weaker than the same period last year.
July Lumber Production Drops 8.6% From June
The July production total represents a significant reversal from the direction reported one month earlier.
Statistics Canada's previous monthly release had indicated that June production increased slightly from May.
The agency has since revised data covering January 2025 through June 2026, meaning previously published historical figures should not be used without checking the updated series.
For July, however, the direction is clear: production fell both month over month and year over year.
Shipments Fall Faster Than Production
Canadian lumber shipments declined more sharply than production during July.
The 3.7289-million-m³ shipment total was approximately 428,000 m³ lower than June based on the reported 10.3% monthly decline.
Shipments were also 7.8% lower than in July 2025.
The steeper decline in shipments indicates that outbound mill volumes weakened faster than production during the month.
Shipments Exceeded July Production by 182,500 m³
Despite the decline, Canadian sawmills shipped approximately 182,500 m³ more lumber than they produced during July.
The difference is calculated directly from the national figures:
3.7289 million m³ shipped − 3.5464 million m³ produced = 182,500 m³.
That comparison should not automatically be interpreted as an inventory draw.
Statistics Canada maintains separate inventory and stock series, and production, shipment and stock data may be revised independently.
DATA READ
Shipping more lumber than was produced in one month does not by itself prove mills reduced inventory by the same amount. Timing differences, revised reporting and separate stock measurements mean the shipment-production gap should be treated only as a simple comparison of the two July figures.
Statistics Canada Does Not Identify a Cause
The July release measures lumber produced and shipped by Canadian manufacturers but does not assign reasons for the declines.
Statistics Canada does not attribute the lower July figures to lumber prices, U.S. housing conditions, tariffs, timber availability, wildfires or sawmill curtailments.
Those factors may affect the broader lumber market, but they should be analyzed separately rather than presented as direct causes of July's production decline without supporting evidence.
This distinction is particularly important because the data are not seasonally adjusted.
U.S. Housing Remains an Important Market Backdrop
Although Statistics Canada does not link July production directly to U.S. construction demand, the American housing market remains an important external reference for Canadian lumber suppliers.
The United States is Canada's largest export market for softwood lumber.
U.S. housing starts ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of approximately 1.275 million units in August, down 2.6% from July and 1.2% from a year earlier.
Single-family starts were stronger, however, rising to 918,000 annualized units in August.
New single-family home sales reached an annualized 684,000 units, 6.4% above July but 2.0% below August 2025.
Those figures show a mixed U.S. housing environment rather than a uniformly declining market.
Canadian Lumber Continues to Face Heavy U.S. Trade Costs
Trade policy remains another important backdrop for Canadian producers, although it should not be treated as the demonstrated cause of July's output decline.
Most Canadian softwood lumber exporters remain subject to U.S. antidumping and countervailing duties.
The current combined cash-deposit rate for many producers covered by the sixth administrative reviews is approximately 35.16%, although company-specific rates differ.
A separate 10% Section 232 tariff on covered softwood lumber imports has also applied since October 14, 2025.
Where both measures apply, the Section 232 tariff is added to the applicable antidumping and countervailing duties.
The U.S. Commerce Department has published lower preliminary and post-preliminary rates under its seventh administrative review, but those figures have not yet taken effect because final results remain pending.
Monthly Data Need to Be Read Carefully
Statistics Canada's methodology note is particularly relevant when comparing individual months.
The sawmill data are not seasonally adjusted.
As a result, month-to-month movements may reflect normal seasonal patterns as well as changes in production schedules, demand and operating conditions.
The agency also routinely revises the series as manufacturers submit updated information.
In the latest release, all monthly data covering January 2025 through June 2026 were revised.
That makes the year-over-year comparison useful alongside the monthly number because July production and shipments were below both June 2026 and July 2025 levels.
Market Read
The July Statistics Canada data point to a clear reduction in Canadian sawmill activity.
Production fell 8.6% from June and 6.7% from a year earlier, while shipments dropped even faster at 10.3% month over month and 7.8% year over year.
The report does not establish why the decline occurred, so July should not be used on its own as evidence that tariffs, housing demand, lumber prices or mill closures drove the move.
Those broader conditions nevertheless remain relevant to the environment in which Canadian producers are operating.
U.S. housing indicators are mixed, Canadian lumber faces significant U.S. trade costs and North American producers have continued to adjust capacity.
The next Statistics Canada sawmill release will therefore be important in determining whether July marked a temporary monthly pullback or the beginning of a more persistent reduction in Canadian production and shipments.
Data note: Statistics Canada's sawmill figures are not seasonally adjusted and are subject to revision. The agency revised data from January 2025 through June 2026 in the latest release.
Courtesy: Fordaq
