Smurfit Westrock Projects Strong EBITDA Growth Through 2030
Paper Recycling | 2026-02-16 05:56:56
The long-term net debt-to-EBITDA target remains below 2.0x.
By Paul Ploumis
SEATTLE (Scrap Monster): Smurfit Westrock plc, in its recently hosted Investor Update, outlined its Medium-Term Plan, capital allocation priorities and long-term value creation strategy. The session, led by President and CEO Tony Smurfit, detailed the company’s financial roadmap for 2026–2030.
The company is targeting adjusted EBITDA of approximately $7 billion by 2030, representing a compound annual growth rate of around 7% and margin expansion of roughly 300 basis points over the five-year period. Smurfit Westrock also expects to generate about $14 billion in cumulative discretionary free cash flow, with CAGR of approximately 17%. The long-term net debt-to-EBITDA target remains below 2.0x.
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Capital returns form a central pillar of the plan. The company intends to maintain a progressive dividend policy, distributing roughly $5 billion between 2026 and 2030, with capacity for share buybacks beginning in 2027.
Management’s outlook assumes moderate market growth across North America, Europe and Latin America, with conservative pricing assumptions. The strategy emphasizes operational performance, disciplined capital allocation and regional growth to enhance shareholder returns.
POLL
Which element of Smurfit Westrock’s Medium-Term Plan is most critical to delivering shareholder value?
Frequently Asked Questions
- What is Smurfit Westrock’s EBITDA target for 2030?
The company is targeting approximately $7 billion in adjusted EBITDA by 2030.
- How much free cash flow does the company expect to generate?
Management projects about $14 billion in cumulative discretionary free cash flow from 2026 to 2030.
- What assumptions underpin the Medium-Term Plan?
The outlook assumes moderate regional market growth and conservative pricing, with emphasis on operational efficiency and disciplined capital allocation.
